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Thursday, March 17, 2016

Russia begins withdrawal from Syria as peace talks get underway

By Michael Birnbaum, Washington Post, March 15, 2016

MOSCOW–Russian forces began to withdraw from Syria on Tuesday, hours after a surprise announcement from Russian President Vladimir Putin that he would end his nation’s military deployment as suddenly as he started it.

The pullback, which came as peace talks got underway in Geneva, threw a new twist into the bloody conflict, which marked its fifth anniversary on Tuesday. After rescuing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from the verge of defeat, Putin now appears to be pressuring his longtime ally to reach a deal.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced Tuesday that “personnel are currently loading equipment, logistics support means and property onto military-transport airplanes.”

By midday in Syria, groups of Russia fighter jets and military transport planes were taking off from the coastal Hmeimim air base in Latakia on their way home to Russia.

But even as Russian servicemen were departing, some limits on the withdrawal were already taking shape. Russia plans to leave its powerful S-400 surface-to-air missile systems in place in Syria, a senior Russian official said. That means that Russia will continue to control Syrian airspace, a powerful deterrent to nations such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia–and even the United States–that might contemplate instituting no-fly zones over parts of Syrian territory.

Russian advisers embedded with the Syrian military also planned to remain, Russian media reported, citing unnamed sources.

“When it is seen that the political component will move forward successfully, and the Syrian army and police are capable of destroying hotbeds of terrorism in Syria on their own, then we will possibly think about the S-400” and its removal, the chairman of the defense and security committee of Russia’s upper house of parliament, Viktor Ozerov, told the Interfax news agency.

The six-month deployment helped Assad forces retake almost 4,000 square miles of territory–nearly the size of Connecticut–eliminating the possibility that he might be deposed by force. It bolstered Russia’s main ally in the Arab world. It also bought Russia a role as a major player on the international stage, forcing the United States and other Western allies to bargain with them after two years of isolation after Ukraine.

But Putin had always said that the deployment would be limited, and he appears to have concluded that Russia’s major aims were achieved after six months of airstrikes and other help to Assad’s forces.

Overall, the cease-fire has brought a measure of peace to the devastated country.

Tuesday’s pullout appears to put pressure on Syrian leaders to reach a deal in Geneva, even as Russia retains the flexibility to quickly redeploy should it find that necessary.

Assad envoys and representatives from the Syrian opposition were engaged in U.N.-brokered talks this week, although they appeared to be starting slowly. Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. envoy leading the bargaining, met Monday with regime envoys and was due to meet later Tuesday with the opposition leaders, who planned to mark the grim five-year anniversary with a ceremony in a garden at the U.N. headquarters in Geneva.

In central Damascus, there was little sign of the anniversary of the conflict, which began with mass protests against Assad’s government. The regime does not mark the occasion. Streets were filled with commuters and shoppers as usual.

Russian state television–always a reliable barometer of the message that the Kremlin wants to send its citizens–moved quickly to portray the pullout as a capstone to a successful Russian military foray. Even the meteorologists got involved, showing the flightpaths of the planes and the likely weather along the way, including some thunderstorms.

The mission was Russia’s first overseas combat deployment since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, and military leaders here had been eager to show off their abilities. Russian military analysts spoke brightly of the good training that Russian soldiers were getting; the Defense Ministry even shifted part of its training budget to Syria.

Analysts said that Putin may prefer to exit Syria on a high note, before becoming bogged down and exposing the Russian military to further risks.

The move is likely to be received well in Russia, where ordinary citizens have supported the intervention, according to opinion polls. But Russians still hold painful memories of the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, which cost many Russian lives and helped speed the collapse of the Soviet Union.

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