Putin Fears Civil War in Syria!

Putin Fears Civil War but Rejects Intervention in Syria

By Nicholas Kulish and Neil MacFarquhar, NY Times, June 1, 2012


BERLIN—President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said Friday that he rejected outside military intervention as an answer to the increasingly horrific bloodshed in Syria, and the Kremlin publicly sided with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria in blaming Mr. Assad’s armed rebel opponents for a massacre there last week that incited world outrage.

But Mr. Putin said he agreed with fears expressed by Western leaders and United Nations officials that the 15-month-old Syria conflict is hurtling toward civil war, and he asserted that Russia backed neither side despite his country’s longstanding support for the Syrian government, its last significant relationship in the Middle East.

Mr. Putin’s remarks on Syria, coming during stops in Germany and France as he began his first foreign trip since reclaiming the Russian presidency, were scrutinized for any hint of a shift in the Russian position on Syria that could help change the course of the conflict, which has become the most protracted and violent of the Arab Spring revolts.

Russia’s objection to any effort by the United States and its allies that could lead to a forceful United Nations Security Council intervention in Syria and the ouster of Mr. Assad has been a major source of contention. But Mr. Putin showed no sign of yielding to pressure from either Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, or later with François Hollande, the new president of France.

“We are seeing nascent elements of a civil war today. This is extremely dangerous,” Mr. Putin said at a news conference with Ms. Merkel after their discussions. At the same time, he dismissed the idea that outside military power was a solution, telling reporters, “You cannot do anything by force.”

He also said: “Those who say that Russia unilaterally supports the Assad regime are mistaken. We and Syria have maintained good relations for years, but we do not support either party from which a threat of civil war emanates.” As for reports that Russia is arming the Syrian military, Mr. Putin said, “Russia is not shipping weapons that could be used in a civil conflict.”

In her remarks, Ms. Merkel told reporters that they had both made clear that they supported the Syria peace plan by Kofi Annan, the special representative from the United Nations and the Arab League, and both she and Mr. Putin “have the same interests regarding stability in the whole region, even if there is the one or the other odd difference in the path to get there.”

Later in Paris, the contrast between the Russian and Western positions was more pronounced. Mr. Hollande told reporters that United Nations sanctions were probably necessary and that “no solution is possible without the departure of Bashar al-Assad.” Mr. Putin said sanctions did not work and that removing Mr. Assad was no panacea. “Do you think that just by removing the president there will be happiness across the country?” he said. “Just look at what has happened in Libya.”

In Moscow, Russia’s Foreign Ministry released a statement with a hard tone, blaming unspecified foreign countries for the Houla massacre, the worst known atrocity so far in the conflict. The statement said the killings “showed what can result from supplying rebels with financial aid and smuggling modern weaponry to them, hiring foreign mercenaries and flirting with different kinds of extremists.”

Russia’s resistance to pressure on Syria reflects an anger that has grown since the beginning of the Arab uprisings, which hard-liners in Moscow view as largely orchestrated by the West. They are particularly resentful over the case of Libya, in which Dmitri A. Medvedev, then the president, agreed not to block a Security Council resolution that provided the basis for NATO airstrikes and the violent death of the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. Mr. Putin fumed over the military campaign at the time, but was powerless to stop it.

“If it hadn’t been for Libya, maybe things would be different with Syria,” said Georgy Mirsky, a leading Middle East scholar at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow.

Intense discussions on Syria also continued between members of the Security Council in New York on how to salvage the cease-fire plan negotiated by Mr. Annan, which has basically been ignored since it took effect in mid-April. Mr. Annan, who was visiting with officials of neighboring Lebanon on Friday, expressed frustration.

“I think perhaps I am more frustrated than most of you because I am in the thick of things,” he said at a news conference in Beirut. “We really want to see things move much faster.”