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Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Saudi Arabia’s Decided Who Its Future Superpower Partner Is, And It’s Not the US
By Simon Watkins - Jun 23, 2026, 12:00 PM CDT
Saudi Arabia appears to be recalibrating back toward China and Russia after the Iran conflict, with recent high-level meetings focused on expanding energy cooperation.
The shift reflects a decade-long evolution that began after the 2014-2016 oil price war, when China deepened its influence in Saudi Arabia through investment, energy deals, support for Aramco, and alignment with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s economic ambitions.
Riyadh's confidence in U.S. security guarantees has been shaken by Iranian strikes on key Saudi energy infrastructure during Operation Epic Fury.
Since the replacement of Russia by China as the primary would-be superpower rival to the U.S., Saudi Arabia has sought to balance its relationships with Beijing and Washington -- sometimes leaning more one way, and sometimes the other. Until the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, the U.S. was the core relationship; after the war had finished, it was China and Russia; and then, from the start of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term in office, it was the U.S. again. However, in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury against Iran, this looks set to shift once more back to China and Russia, with a series of high-level meetings between Chinese and Saudi Arabian officials taking place last week. One of these -- between the deputy head of China’s National Energy Administration, Song Hongkun, and Saudi Aramco’s Downstream President, Mohammed Al Qahtani -- focused on boosting global energy security and bilateral oil and gas cooperation between the two sides. So, how has the global oil market arrived at this point, and what happens next?
The genesis of the current position lies in the financial devastation to OPEC countries of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, fully analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Before the conflict started, there had been a broad and deep relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia based on a landmark agreement between Washington and Riyadh formulated at a meeting on 14 February 1945 between the then-U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Saudi King at the time, Abdulaziz Al Saud. The deal was this: the U.S. would receive all the oil supplies it needed for as long as Saudi Arabia had oil in place, in return for which the U.S. would guarantee the security of the ruling House of Saud and, by extension, of Saudi Arabia.
This worked well enough to survive the 1973 Oil Crisis, in which Riyadh led an oil embargo alongside its OPEC brothers against the U.S. and its allies for helping Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. However, it did not truly survive the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, as by then the U.S.’s shale oil sector had become a serious global oil-producing force, making the country much better able to withstand lower-for-longer oil prices than Saudi Arabia and its fellow OPEC members. Moreover, Washington regarded this, effectively, as a second oil price war instigated by Saudi Arabia as one breach too many of the fundamental relationship agreement of 1945.Related: Iran Says U.S. Agreed to Unblock $12 Billion in Frozen Funds
Following the financial devastation of 2014-2016 Oil Price War for Saudi Arabia and its OPEC brothers, they had little choice but to admit Russia to the wider ‘OPEC+’ grouping to restore the organisation’s shattered credibility in the global oil markets. China, in turn, was able to leverage the new-found power of its ally into extending its own influence in the Middle East’s leading energy state through a series of wide-ranging agreements made after 2016, and its immediate focus on laying the groundwork for these was a rising star in Riyadh -- then-Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).
Following the financial devastation of 2014-2016 Oil Price War for Saudi Arabia and its OPEC brothers, they had little choice but to admit Russia to the wider ‘OPEC+’ grouping to restore the organisation’s shattered credibility in the global oil markets. China, in turn, was able to leverage the new-found power of its ally into extending its own influence in the Middle East’s leading energy state through a series of wide-ranging agreements made after 2016, and its immediate focus on laying the groundwork for these was a rising star in Riyadh -- then-Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).
From the first year of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, Saudi Arabia’s government budget went into deficit -- to double digit levels of GDP in the first full year of the war -- and it stayed in deficit until the end of 2021. At the same time, MbS was not the natural successor to King Salman, with the heir-designate to King Salman being Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, but the young Prince had an idea that he believed would help him progress -- an initial public offering (IPO) of Saudi Arabia’s flagship firm, Aramco.
It was his belief, publicly aired in the second half of 2016, that if Saudi Arabia listed 5% of the firm on international stock markets then it would raise at least US$100 billion for the Kingdom in much-needed funds. This figure would also mean a valuation for Saudi Aramco of US$2 trillion, making it by far the most valuable company ever listed in the world, so restoring some of Saudi Arabia’s damaged reputation in the process. MbS also thought that a listing of Saudi Aramco in multiple major financial centres around the world, including the two most prestigious stock exchanges – the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange – would project Saudi Arabia’s presence as an international player in financial markets as a whole and not just in the oil sector. All these reasons looked solid enough on the surface and the senior Saudis agreed to go ahead.
It was his belief, publicly aired in the second half of 2016, that if Saudi Arabia listed 5% of the firm on international stock markets then it would raise at least US$100 billion for the Kingdom in much-needed funds. This figure would also mean a valuation for Saudi Aramco of US$2 trillion, making it by far the most valuable company ever listed in the world, so restoring some of Saudi Arabia’s damaged reputation in the process. MbS also thought that a listing of Saudi Aramco in multiple major financial centres around the world, including the two most prestigious stock exchanges – the New York Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange – would project Saudi Arabia’s presence as an international player in financial markets as a whole and not just in the oil sector. All these reasons looked solid enough on the surface and the senior Saudis agreed to go ahead.
However, almost immediately that the process began, questions began to emerge from international investors over the corporate structure of Aramco, the degree to which it would be subject to government control, its valuation, its true oil reserves and spare capacity, and the physical security of its fields, among many others. The upshot was that no serious international investor wanted to become too involved in the IPO and nor did the world’s most prestigious stock markets. That put MbS in a tricky position, as he was the original champion of the idea. However, at precisely that point, China offered to buy the entire 5% of Aramco scheduled to be offered in the IPO. Although the offer was eventually declined, MbS never forgot China’s gesture.
Shortly afterwards, in March 2017, a landmark visit to China by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman took place, during which around US$65 billion of business deals were signed in sectors including oil refining, petrochemicals, light manufacturing and electronics. In August that year, the then-Saudi Vice Minister of Economy and Planning, Mohammed al-Tuwaijri, told a Saudi-China conference in Jeddah that: “We will be very willing to consider funding in renminbi and other Chinese products.” The use of the renminbi was -- and remains -- a central plank of China’s strategy to subvert one of the key pillars upon which the U.S.’s global dominance is built -- the use of the dollar as effectively the global reserve and trade currency, as also detailed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Al-Tuwaijri’s comments came during the visit of high-ranking politicians and financiers from China to Saudi Arabia in August 2017, during which it was also decided that Saudi Arabia and China would establish a US$20 billion investment fund on a 50:50 basis.
Shortly afterwards, in March 2017, a landmark visit to China by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman took place, during which around US$65 billion of business deals were signed in sectors including oil refining, petrochemicals, light manufacturing and electronics. In August that year, the then-Saudi Vice Minister of Economy and Planning, Mohammed al-Tuwaijri, told a Saudi-China conference in Jeddah that: “We will be very willing to consider funding in renminbi and other Chinese products.” The use of the renminbi was -- and remains -- a central plank of China’s strategy to subvert one of the key pillars upon which the U.S.’s global dominance is built -- the use of the dollar as effectively the global reserve and trade currency, as also detailed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Al-Tuwaijri’s comments came during the visit of high-ranking politicians and financiers from China to Saudi Arabia in August 2017, during which it was also decided that Saudi Arabia and China would establish a US$20 billion investment fund on a 50:50 basis.
According to comments at the time from then-Saudi Energy Minister, Khalid al-Falih, this fund would invest in sectors such as infrastructure, energy, mining and materials, among other areas. In August 2022, at the signing of a multi-pronged deal between Aramco and the China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), the president of Sinopec, Yu Baocai, said: “The signing of the MoU introduces a new chapter of our partnership in the Kingdom…The two companies will join hands in renewing the vitality and scoring new progress of the Belt and Road Initiative [BRI] and [Saudi Arabia’s] Vision 2030.” Moving into the fourth quarter of 2022, Saudi Arabia reiterated its commitment to China as its “most reliable partner and supplier of crude oil,” along with broader assurances of its ongoing support in several other areas. This was in line with the earlier comments from Aramco chief executive officer, Amin Nasser that: “Ensuring the continuing security of China’s energy needs remains our highest priority - not just for the next five years but for the next 50 and beyond.”
This, and several similar comments around that time, appeared to confirm that Saudi Arabia had come to regard the U.S. as just another one of its partners -- particular in the realm of providing security -- in a new global order that would see Beijing and its allies share the leadership position with Washington, before attempting to surpass it. This view appears to have re-asserted itself after what Saudi Arabia -- and many of its fellow Middle Eastern states -- see as a failure by Washington to safeguard their security and economic interests during the war with Iran.
This, and several similar comments around that time, appeared to confirm that Saudi Arabia had come to regard the U.S. as just another one of its partners -- particular in the realm of providing security -- in a new global order that would see Beijing and its allies share the leadership position with Washington, before attempting to surpass it. This view appears to have re-asserted itself after what Saudi Arabia -- and many of its fellow Middle Eastern states -- see as a failure by Washington to safeguard their security and economic interests during the war with Iran.
Despite having invested hundreds of billions of dollars over the years in U.S.-supplied defence equipment aimed at providing the Kingdom with a security umbrella against attacks, Iran was able to hit key targets in the country, including the East-West Pipeline, the Manifa and Khurais oil Fields, the Ras Tanura Refinery and several other oil, natural gas, refining, and petrochemical sites stretching from the Eastern Province to Yanbu Industrial City. These successful Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia’s critical energy infrastructure underline to Riyadh that, even on a security basis, the use of the U.S. appears limited. These concerns are heightened by the Kingdom’s broader fears that whatever the U.S.-Iran deal finally turns out to be, it will leave Saudi Arabia in a far more vulnerable position than it was before the war began.
By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com
By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com
Psalm 124 - Our help is in the name of the Lord, who made heaven and earth.
Psalm 124 a Psalm of David commentaries by Dennis Edwards
124:1-5 If it
had not been the Lord who
was on our side, now may Israel say; If it had
not been the Lord who
was on our side, when men rose up against us: Then they had swallowed us
up quick, when their wrath was kindled against us: Then the waters had
overwhelmed us, the stream had gone over our soul: Then the proud waters
had gone over our soul.
The Bible often uses the metaphor
of overflowing waters to represent the overwhelming psychological battles we
are confronted with in life. Many times, these battles are the results of
slanderous attacks against us or against our character or reputation. In Psalm
69, David uses the same imagery.
Psalm 69:1-4a “Save me, O
God; for the waters are come in unto my soul. I sink in deep mire, where there
is no standing: I am come into deep waters, where the floods overflow me. I am
weary of my crying: my throat is dried: mine eyes fail while I wait for my God.
They that hate me without a cause are more than the hairs of my head: they that
would destroy me, being my enemies wrongfully, are mighty,”
We see David is
experiencing the waters of discouragement from the slanderous attacks on his
person. In verse seven he explains that he is being reproached.
Psalm 69:7 “Because for
thy sake I have borne reproach (or criticism): shame has covered my face.”
In Revelation 12 when the
Antichrist is persecuting the followers of Christ, we read the following:
Revelation 12:15 “And the
serpent cast out of his mouth water as a flood after the woman, that he might
cause her to be carried away of the flood.”
The imagery is the same
where we see the serpent casting forth a flood of lies against the believers.
He is trying to deconstruct their belief system, to get them to doubt what they
have believed. If anyone has gone through a media storm, or had their business
go through one, they will understand the depth of anxiety one faces in such
situations. Words are real things. They bless, or they curse. Jesus said that
we will give account for every idle word, for by our words we will be
justified, and by our words we will be condemned. Solomon wrote that death and
life are in the power of the tongue.
Psalm 46 is another Psalm
where we see the imagery of overflowing waters bringing destruction.
Psalm 46:1-3 “God is our
refuge and our strength, a very present help in times of trouble. Therefore, we
will not fear, though the earth be removed, and though the mountains fall into
the midst of the sea; though the waters thereof roar and be troubled, though
the mountains shale with the swelling thereof. Selah.”
Even though the waters of
slanderous lies are trying to flood into our soul through the words of the
Press, our enemies, our spiritual enemy, or even our own loved ones; we will
not lose hope and faint in our minds. God has promised to be a refuge and a
very present help in those times of trouble, the times when the waters are
overflowing into our soul and causing us to almost drown in discouragement and
anxiety and unbelief.
Jonah had had the same
experience where he had fallen into condemnation through his disobedience to
the Lord. Having been swallowed by a whale, he spent three days and nights
wallowing in despair. Finally, he rebuked the lies of the enemy and proclaimed, “Salvation
is of the Lord.” He stopped observing the lies of the enemy and remembered the
Lord’s mercy. He called out to God in his distress, and the Lord heard him. The
whale vomited Jonah onto dry land and Jonah was soon onto the mission he had
refused to yield to previously.
In Isaiah we find an encouraging
promise from the Lord, that He will be with us in our times of trouble.
Isaiah 43:2 “When you
pass through the waters, I will be with you; and through the rivers, they shall
not overflow you: when you pass through the fire, you shall not be burned;
neither shall the flame kindle upon you.”
Psalm 124:6-8 Blessed be
the Lord, who has not given us as
a prey to their teeth. Our soul is escaped as a bird out of the snare of
the fowlers: the snare is broken, and we are escaped. Our help is in the
name of the Lord, who
made heaven and earth.
I have an interesting
testimony about the above Psalm. In July of 1990, five missionary families
living together in a communal setting were detained by the Barcelona police in
an early morning raid. They were accused of fraud, of being an “illegal
association,” which at that time included ETA - a terrorist group, and of not having their children enrolled in the local school
system. Their children were removed and placed into government facilities for abandoned
children. There had been no warning or government interaction with the
missionary community before the raid.
Meanwhile, in the press,
the missionary families were accused of abuse of minors, and of belonging to a
sex-cult, our defrauding their friends and contacts. The government declared the adults would most likely get 20 years or more a
piece in prison for their crimes.
It was at that time, when three of the women from the group, went on a fundraising trip to another part of Spain, to Zaragoza. As was often the case on such “faith-trips,” they trusted God for their lodgings. In Zaragoza, they ended up meeting and staying with a woman who was studying to become a nun. As was the custom of the missionary women, they would have a time of devotion and prayer before starting the day. The novice nun, likewise had her own time in a similar manner.
The missionary women
were struggling under the cloud of slander they were facing. They were having a
hard time to get on their feet and do their fundraising. They were questioning their own belief system. The novice nun was not oblivious to their psychological condition. One morning, she came and
shared the above Psalm with them. She told them that she didn’t
know what they were going through, but God had showed her to share that Psalm with them.
Just as the Psalm states, "If it had not been for the Lord, that was on their side, when men rose up
against them, they would have been swallowed up quickly. The waters would have
overwhelmed them and gone into their souls." But it was not so, because the Lord
was on their side. In spite of the power of the Barcelonian government and the
help of the mainstream media, the Lord made a way of escape. He broke the snare
of the enemy.
One year after the children were abducted by the welfare department of Barcelona, they were returned to their parents. Four years later, both the Penal Court and the Constitutional Court found their parents innocent of all charges. Their help had been in the name of the Lord, who had made heaven and earth. They cried and the Lord heard them, and delivered them out of all their afflictions, just as the above Psalm predicted.
Salmo 124 - O nosso auxÃlio está no nome do Senhor, que fez o céu e a terra.
Psalm 124:1-5 Se o Senhor não estivesse ao nosso lado, agora Israel poderá dizer: Se o Senhor não estivesse ao nosso lado, quando os homens se levantaram contra nós! Então eles ter-nos-iam engolido vivos, quando a sua ira se acendeu contra nós. Então as águas ter-nos-iam submergido, e a corrente teria passado sobre a nossa alma. Então as águas impetuosas teriam passado sobre a nossa alma.
A BÃblia utiliza frequentemente a metáfora das águas transbordantes para representar as batalhas psicológicas avassaladoras que enfrentamos na vida. Muitas vezes, estas batalhas são o resultado de ataques caluniosos contra nós, contra o nosso carácter ou contra a nossa reputação. No Salmo 69, David utiliza a mesma imagem.
Salmo 69:1-4a “Salva-me, ó Deus, porque as águas chegaram até à minha alma. Afundo-me em lama profunda, onde não há firmeza; entrei em águas profundas, onde as correntes me submergem. Estou cansado de clamar; a minha garganta está seca; os meus olhos se consomem de tanto esperar pelo meu Deus. Os que me odeiam sem causa são mais numerosos que os cabelos da minha cabeça; os que me querem destruir, sendo meus inimigos injustamente, são poderosos.”
Vemos que David está a experimentar as águas do desânimo devido aos ataques caluniosos contra a sua pessoa. No versÃculo sete, explica que está a ser insultado.
Salmo 69:7 “Porque por tua causa tenho suportado afrontas (ou crÃticas); a vergonha cobre o meu rosto.”
Em Apocalipse 12, quando o Anticristo persegue os seguidores de Cristo, lê-se o seguinte:
Apocalipse 12:15 “E a serpente lançou da sua boca água como um rio, atrás da mulher, para que fosse submersa pelo rio.”
A imagem é a mesma, onde vemos a serpente a lançar um dilúvio de mentiras contra os crentes. Ela está a tentar desconstruir o sistema de crenças deles, para os fazer duvidar daquilo em que acreditam. Se alguém já passou por uma tempestade mediática ou viu o seu negócio passar por uma, compreenderá a profundidade da ansiedade que se enfrenta em tais situações. As palavras são reais. Elas abençoam ou amaldiçoam. Jesus disse que prestaremos contas de toda a palavra ociosa, pois pelas nossas palavras seremos justificados e pelas nossas palavras seremos condenados. Salomão escreveu que a morte e a vida estão no poder da lÃngua.
O Salmo 46 é outro Salmo onde vemos a imagem de águas transbordantes a trazer destruição.
Salmo 46:1-3 “Deus é o nosso refúgio e a nossa fortaleza, socorro bem presente na angústia. Portanto, não temeremos, ainda que a terra se mude, e ainda que os montes se transportem para o meio dos mares; ainda que as águas rujam e se perturbem, ainda que os montes se abalem com a sua fúria. (Selá).”
Mesmo que as águas da calúnia tentem inundar a nossa alma através das palavras da imprensa, dos nossos inimigos, do nosso inimigo espiritual ou até mesmo dos nossos entes queridos, não perderemos a esperança nem desfaleceremos. Deus prometeu ser um refúgio e um socorro bem presente nestes momentos de angústia, nos momentos em que as águas transbordam na nossa alma e nos fazem quase afogar em desânimo, ansiedade e incredulidade.
Jonas teve a mesma experiência, caindo em condenação pela sua desobediência ao Senhor. Tendo sido engolido por uma baleia, passou três dias e três noites mergulhado no desespero. Por fim, repreendeu as mentiras do inimigo e proclamou: “A salvação vem do Senhor”. Deixou de dar ouvidos à s mentiras do inimigo e lembrou-se da misericórdia do Senhor. Clamou a Deus na sua angústia, e o Senhor o ouviu. A baleia vomitou Jonas em terra firme, e Jonas não tardou a cumprir a missão a que se recusara anteriormente.
Em IsaÃas, encontramos uma promessa encorajadora do Senhor: Ele estará connosco nos nossos momentos de dificuldade.
IsaÃas 43:2 “Quando passares pelas águas, eu serei contigo; e quando pelos rios, eles não te submergirão; quando passares pelo fogo, não te queimarás, nem a chama arderá em ti.”
Salmo 124:6-8 Bendito seja o Senhor, que não nos entregou como presa aos seus dentes. A nossa alma escapou como um pássaro do laço dos passarinheiros; o laço rompeu-se, e nós escapámos. O nosso auxÃlio está no nome do Senhor, que fez o céu e a terra.
Tenho um testemunho interessante sobre o Salmo acima. Em Julho de 1990, cinco famÃlias missionárias que viviam juntas numa comunidade foram detidas pela polÃcia de Barcelona numa rusga realizada ao inÃcio da manhã. Foram acusadas de fraude, de serem uma “associação ilegal”, que na altura incluÃa a ETA – um grupo terrorista – e de não terem matriculado os seus filhos no sistema escolar local. Os seus filhos foram retirados à sua guarda e colocados em instituições governamentais para crianças abandonadas. Não houve qualquer aviso ou contacto do governo com a comunidade missionária antes da rusga.
Entretanto, na imprensa, as famÃlias missionárias foram acusadas de abuso de menores, de pertencerem a um culto sexual e de fraudarem os seus amigos e conhecidos. O governo declarou que os adultos provavelmente receberiam 20 anos ou mais de prisão cada um pelos seus crimes.
Foi nesta altura que três mulheres do grupo fizeram uma viagem para angariar fundos noutra zona de Espanha, a Saragoça. Como era comum nestas "viagens de fé", confiaram em Deus para a sua hospedagem. Em Saragoça, acabaram por conhecer e ficar na casa de uma mulher que estudava para se tornar freira. Como era costume entre as missionárias, estas tinham um momento de devoção e oração antes de começar o dia. A noviça tinha também o seu próprio momento de devoção.
As missionárias lutavam contra a nuvem de calúnias que enfrentavam. Estavam com dificuldades para se reerguer e realizar a sua angariação de fundos. Questionavam o seu próprio sistema de crenças. A noviça não era alheia à sua condição psicológica. Certa manhã, ela veio e partilhou com elas o Salmo acima. Ela disse-lhes que não sabia o que estavam a passar, mas que Deus lhe tinha mostrado que devia partilhar aquele Salmo com eles.
Tal como afirma o Salmo: "Se não fosse o Senhor, que estava do lado deles, quando os homens se levantaram contra eles, teriam sido rapidamente engolidos. As águas tê-los-iam submergido e penetrado nas suas almas." Mas não foi assim, porque o Senhor estava do lado deles. Apesar do poder do governo de Barcelona e da ajuda dos grandes meios de comunicação, o Senhor providenciou uma saÃda. Ele quebrou a armadilha do inimigo.
Um ano depois de as crianças terem sido raptadas pelo departamento de assistência social de Barcelona, foram devolvidas aos pais. Quatro anos depois, tanto o Tribunal Penal como o Tribunal Constitucional consideraram os pais inocentes de todas as acusações. O auxÃlio que receberam foi em nome do Senhor, que fez o céu e a terra. Clamaram e o Senhor ouviu-os e livrou-os de todas as suas aflições, exatamente como o Salmo acima predisse.
