Archaeologist confirms creation and the Bible Interview with archaeologist Dr Clifford Wilson
Thursday, September 18, 2014
… by Dr Carl Wieland
Never mind those freedom fries. The French are Europe’s new war hawks.
By Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post, September 15, 2014
In March 2003, a gung-ho U.S. House of Representatives opted to rebrand french fries and french toast in the chamber’s cafeteria as “Freedom fries” and “Freedom toast.” The previous October, a rubber-stamp Congress had approved President George W. Bush’s plans to invade Iraq. Among the United States’ Western allies, France was the most outspoken in opposition.
French diplomats wanted more time for U.N. weapons inspectors to evaluate whether Saddam Hussein’s Iraq possessed the “weapons of mass destruction” that the Bush administration was convinced it had. In hindsight, they, alongside many others opposed to the invasion, were right.
Nevertheless, American ire at France’s refusal to go along with Bush’s war was pronounced. And it led to the churlish renaming of fried foods. “This action today is a small but symbolic effort to show the strong displeasure of many on Capitol Hill with the actions of our so-called ally France,” said Rep. Bob Ney (R-Ohio), then the chairman of the Committee on House Administration.
The move marked a nadir in U.S.-French relations—a moment that feels light years away from the present. Today, France played host to American, European and Arab delegations that convened to further develop a coordinated plan to roll back the advance of Islamic State militants in Iraq. It has issued some of the strongest statements on the need to crack down on the powerful terrorist organization. The French, you see, have become Europe’s new hawks.
In recent years, French governments of differing ideological stripes have led calls for intervention in a range of conflicts. In 2011, conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy authorized airstrikes in the Ivory Coast to avert a crisis that some observers feared could lead to ethnic cleansing. He also rallied NATO allies in 2011 to join in a bombing campaign that would help destroy the regime of Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi. In the years since, NATO countries have watched on the sidelines as post-Gaddafi Libya imploded; just this past week, France called for a new intervention.
That’s because Sarkozy’s Socialist successor, François Hollande, has been equally hawkish about fighting insurgencies and stabilizing war zones. Under Hollande, France deployed troops in Mali to combat al-Qaeda-linked rebel fighters in 2013. The French have also been far more suspicious of the nuclear negotiations taking place between the West and Iran, and it dubbed an agreement hatched in November as “a fool’s game.” A year ago, when the United States failed to win Western support for airstrikes on the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Hollande’s government stoutly backed the Obama administration’s plans, even as the British Parliament voted against intervention, and was ready to launch its own strikes.
Sarkozy had branded himself an “Atlanticist,” a gesture to an earlier moment of cooperation with the United States that Hollande has also embraced. Ahead of Hollande’s state visit to Washington earlier this year, Time magazine’s London bureau chief, Catherine Mayer, summed up the new spirit of Gallic-American bonhomie:
Gone are the days when the U.S. dismissed the French as cheese-eating surrender monkeys for their refusal to get involved in the toppling of Saddam Hussein. Hollande looks like Obama’s most reliable ally, especially as the French leader has signalled his magnanimity on the issue that could have thrown cold water on the burgeoning bromance: the NSA’s spying on French citizens. As Hollande told TIME in an exclusive Jan. 24 interview, he intends to forgive if not to forget, looking instead for “a new cooperation in the field of intelligence.”
What has motivated this change? A strong streak of moralism has come to the fore in French foreign policy, peddled by a coterie of internationalist public intellectuals. The most visible, Bernard Henri-Lévy, was a confidant of Sarkozy and is even credited with stirring up action against Gaddafi in Libya. But there is a clear pragmatism underlying French actions, as well.
First, both Sarkozy—toward the end of his tenure—and Hollande—for pretty much most of it, so far—faced low popularity ratings in polls. As domestic concerns mount, the prospect of decisive, robust action abroad has its allures. France’s political system allows the executive greater license to launch such interventions.
Money also talks. In 2013, orders for French weapons rose 43 percent from the previous year, reaching almost $9 billion, according to the French Defense Ministry. France is one of the world’s biggest arms exporters, and its interests in the Middle East, including Paris’s hawkishness on Iran, appear more and more closely aligned with those of valued customer Saudi Arabia. The French, in conjunction with the Saudis, are trying to finalize a $3 billion arms deal that would strengthen the Lebanese military—an initiative that, the Saudis hope, would help counter the influence of the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah, which many see as an Iranian proxy and whose fighters have aided the Assad regime in Syria’s civil war.
The proposed coalition of Arab states that the United States hopes will join in the effort against the Islamic State includes many authoritarian states with terrible human rights records. It makes the bluster and naivety of the age of Freedom fries look all the more distant.
Beating Back the Risk of Diabetes
By Jane E. Brody, NY Times, September 15, 2014
This year, nearly two million American adults and more than 5,000 children and adolescents will learn they have a potentially devastating, life-shortening, yet largely preventable disease: Type 2 diabetes. They will join 29.1 million Americans who already have diabetes.
Diabetes and its complications are responsible for nearly 200,000 deaths a year; the fatality rate among affected adults is 50 percent higher than among similar people without diabetes. Alarmingly, recent studies even have linked diabetes to an increased risk of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. Even people with above-average blood glucose levels, but not diabetes, have an elevated risk.
Type 2 diabetes runs in families, largely because its primary risk factor—excess weight—runs in families. But you can keep it at bay by losing weight and becoming more active.
Unfortunately, as numerous studies have shown, intensive efforts to get people to lose weight, eat healthier and become moderately active fail more often than not even among those who already have diabetes. It is easier (and more effective) to avoid becoming overweight in the first place.
But it is by no means impossible to lose weight, and at some point, your physical and mental well-being may depend on it. Here are some diet and exercise tips that can help.
Avoid drastic measures. Crash diets and kooky eating plans are doomed to fail. It’s better to make gradual changes in what and how much you eat to give your body a chance to adjust.
The Diabetes Prevention Program study, conducted among about 3,800 people who had pre-diabetes, found that moderate weight loss—an average of 12 pounds—reduced the odds of progression to diabetes by nearly 50 percent.
Although total calories must be reduced, you don’t have to count them. Rather, concentrate on your food choices and gradually reduce portion sizes. Some people find it helpful to write down everything they eat and drink each day for a week or two.
An excellent discussion of what is known about the effect on diabetes of various foods and supplements appeared recently in Nutrition Action Healthletter at cspinet.org/iceberg.pdf. Some highlights:
Carbohydrates—breads, grains, cereals, sugary drinks and sweets of all kinds—are most problematic for people with diabetes or at risk of developing it. Carbohydrates are eventually metabolized to glucose, which raises the body’s demand for insulin. Consume less of them in general, and choose whole-grain versions whenever possible.
If you must have sweet drinks, select artificially sweetened ones. In two huge studies of nurses and other health professionals who were followed for 22 years, those who drank one or more sugary soft drinks a day had about a 30 percent higher risk of developing diabetes than those who rarely drank them, even after their weight was taken into account.
Fruit juice is not necessarily safer than soda. All drinks with fructose (table sugar, high-fructose corn syrup, honey or agave) may increase body weight, insulin resistance and belly fat, all of which can promote diabetes.
But there’s good news about coffee. Two or three cups of coffee (but not tea) a day, with or without caffeine, have been consistently linked to a lower risk of Type 2 diabetes. Consider having coffee (unsweetened or artificially sweetened) in place of soft drinks. Keep in mind that specialty coffee drinks can be loaded with sugar and calories.
For protein, limit consumption of red meat, especially processed meats like sausages, hot dogs and luncheon meats, which are linked to a higher diabetes risk. Instead, choose fish, lean poultry (skinless and not fried), beans and nuts.
Low-fat dairy products, including yogurt, and even fatty ones may lower the risk of diabetes; the reason is unclear.
Most protective are green, leafy vegetables—spinach, chard, kale, collards, mustard greens and even lettuce—as well as cruciferous vegetables like cabbage, broccoli and cauliflower. But all vegetables are good and should fill at least two-thirds of your dinner plate.
Consider dining several times a week on a big salad, adding beans, fish or chicken for protein. Use dressing sparingly.
The nutrients magnesium and vitamin D are also potentially protective. In fact, the preventive value of leafy greens, whole grains, beans and nuts may lie in their high magnesium content. In a well-designed clinical trial of 32 overweight people with insulin resistance, the prelude to diabetes, blood glucose levels and insulin sensitivity improved in those who took a daily magnesium supplement for six months.
Don’t go overboard: More than 350 milligrams of magnesium daily can cause diarrhea.
Vitamin D, long known to be crucial to healthy bones, may also be helpful. In one study of 92 overweight or obese adults with prediabetes, those who took a supplement of 2,000 international units of vitamin D daily had better function of the pancreatic cells that produce insulin.
Of course, how much you weigh and what you eat are not the only concerns. Regular, preferably daily, physical exercise is a vital component of any prevention and treatment program for Type 2 diabetes, or most any chronic ailment. Weight loss can reduce diabetes risk by about 50 percent, but adding exercise to that can lower the odds by 70 percent, compared with people who remain overweight and inactive, according to a study that followed nearly 85,000 female nurses for 16 years. Women who were active for seven or more hours weekly had half the risk of developing diabetes as did women who exercised only a half-hour a week.
It helps to live in a community where walking, the nation’s most popular form of exercise, is feasible and safe. A Canadian study of recent immigrants found a significantly higher incidence of diabetes among those living in areas where it was a challenge to walk.
When communities are retrofitted, or new living and working environments are developed, creating areas conducive to exercise should always be part of the plan.
This year, nearly two million American adults and more than 5,000 children and adolescents will learn they have a potentially devastating, life-shortening, yet largely preventable disease: Type 2 diabetes. They will join 29.1 million Americans who already have diabetes.
Diabetes and its complications are responsible for nearly 200,000 deaths a year; the fatality rate among affected adults is 50 percent higher than among similar people without diabetes. Alarmingly, recent studies even have linked diabetes to an increased risk of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. Even people with above-average blood glucose levels, but not diabetes, have an elevated risk.
Type 2 diabetes runs in families, largely because its primary risk factor—excess weight—runs in families. But you can keep it at bay by losing weight and becoming more active.
Unfortunately, as numerous studies have shown, intensive efforts to get people to lose weight, eat healthier and become moderately active fail more often than not even among those who already have diabetes. It is easier (and more effective) to avoid becoming overweight in the first place.
But it is by no means impossible to lose weight, and at some point, your physical and mental well-being may depend on it. Here are some diet and exercise tips that can help.
Avoid drastic measures. Crash diets and kooky eating plans are doomed to fail. It’s better to make gradual changes in what and how much you eat to give your body a chance to adjust.
The Diabetes Prevention Program study, conducted among about 3,800 people who had pre-diabetes, found that moderate weight loss—an average of 12 pounds—reduced the odds of progression to diabetes by nearly 50 percent.
Although total calories must be reduced, you don’t have to count them. Rather, concentrate on your food choices and gradually reduce portion sizes. Some people find it helpful to write down everything they eat and drink each day for a week or two.
An excellent discussion of what is known about the effect on diabetes of various foods and supplements appeared recently in Nutrition Action Healthletter at cspinet.org/iceberg.pdf. Some highlights:
Carbohydrates—breads, grains, cereals, sugary drinks and sweets of all kinds—are most problematic for people with diabetes or at risk of developing it. Carbohydrates are eventually metabolized to glucose, which raises the body’s demand for insulin. Consume less of them in general, and choose whole-grain versions whenever possible.
If you must have sweet drinks, select artificially sweetened ones. In two huge studies of nurses and other health professionals who were followed for 22 years, those who drank one or more sugary soft drinks a day had about a 30 percent higher risk of developing diabetes than those who rarely drank them, even after their weight was taken into account.
Fruit juice is not necessarily safer than soda. All drinks with fructose (table sugar, high-fructose corn syrup, honey or agave) may increase body weight, insulin resistance and belly fat, all of which can promote diabetes.
But there’s good news about coffee. Two or three cups of coffee (but not tea) a day, with or without caffeine, have been consistently linked to a lower risk of Type 2 diabetes. Consider having coffee (unsweetened or artificially sweetened) in place of soft drinks. Keep in mind that specialty coffee drinks can be loaded with sugar and calories.
For protein, limit consumption of red meat, especially processed meats like sausages, hot dogs and luncheon meats, which are linked to a higher diabetes risk. Instead, choose fish, lean poultry (skinless and not fried), beans and nuts.
Low-fat dairy products, including yogurt, and even fatty ones may lower the risk of diabetes; the reason is unclear.
Most protective are green, leafy vegetables—spinach, chard, kale, collards, mustard greens and even lettuce—as well as cruciferous vegetables like cabbage, broccoli and cauliflower. But all vegetables are good and should fill at least two-thirds of your dinner plate.
Consider dining several times a week on a big salad, adding beans, fish or chicken for protein. Use dressing sparingly.
The nutrients magnesium and vitamin D are also potentially protective. In fact, the preventive value of leafy greens, whole grains, beans and nuts may lie in their high magnesium content. In a well-designed clinical trial of 32 overweight people with insulin resistance, the prelude to diabetes, blood glucose levels and insulin sensitivity improved in those who took a daily magnesium supplement for six months.
Don’t go overboard: More than 350 milligrams of magnesium daily can cause diarrhea.
Vitamin D, long known to be crucial to healthy bones, may also be helpful. In one study of 92 overweight or obese adults with prediabetes, those who took a supplement of 2,000 international units of vitamin D daily had better function of the pancreatic cells that produce insulin.
Of course, how much you weigh and what you eat are not the only concerns. Regular, preferably daily, physical exercise is a vital component of any prevention and treatment program for Type 2 diabetes, or most any chronic ailment. Weight loss can reduce diabetes risk by about 50 percent, but adding exercise to that can lower the odds by 70 percent, compared with people who remain overweight and inactive, according to a study that followed nearly 85,000 female nurses for 16 years. Women who were active for seven or more hours weekly had half the risk of developing diabetes as did women who exercised only a half-hour a week.
It helps to live in a community where walking, the nation’s most popular form of exercise, is feasible and safe. A Canadian study of recent immigrants found a significantly higher incidence of diabetes among those living in areas where it was a challenge to walk.
When communities are retrofitted, or new living and working environments are developed, creating areas conducive to exercise should always be part of the plan.
Se você Soubesse que Deus Está ao seu Lado
http://anchor.tfionline.com/pt/post/se-voce-soubesse-que-deus-esta-ao-seu-lado/
Uma compilação
Poucas pessoas entendem o sentido pleno de Mateus 1:23: “E lhe chamarão Emanuel" que significa "Deus conosco.” Esta curta frase nos revela o mais grandioso fato neste mundo, que Deus, o Deus onipotente, o criador dos céus e da terra, não é uma divindade longÃnqua que habita em um Céu glorioso e inalcançável. Ele está aqui ao nosso lado, neste mundo, no meio de nós, pobres, ignorantes e indefesas pessoas, tão perto quanto nós estamos de nós mesmos. Para o ser humano é assombroso que é difÃcil acreditar. Mas a BÃblia ensina isso como um fato. No princÃpio de tudo, no Gênesis, fala da “presença do Senhor Deus entre as árvores no jardim”. E a partir daà Ele sempre nos é revelado em interação familiar e diária com o Seu povo.
Em Êxodo, Ele pede para fazermos “um santuário para que possa habitar entre o povo”. Existem registros de que Ele “caminhou” com eles no ermo, e “habitou” com eles na Terra Prometida. Ele ensinou ao povo que deviam contar com Ele como um amigo e auxÃlio sempre presente, a consultá-lO sobre suas situações, e deixarem por conta dEle a gestão de suas vidas. E, por fim, Ele veio na forma humana por meio de Cristo e habitou entre os homens. Ele veio em carne e osso, como nós, com a nossa natureza, revelando-nos da maneira mais tangÃvel e real possÃvel o grandioso, bem-aventurado e incompreensÃvel fato de que pretendia estar conosco sempre, até à consumação dos séculos.
Quem acreditar nisso de todo o coração encontrará a solução para toda e qualquer dificuldade na vida.
Lembro-me que quando era pequena, meus pais estavam presentes, ao meu lado para me ajudar, quando eu tinha um problema ou dificuldade. Assim que ouvia um deles dizer, “filha, estou aqui”, o peso e a ansiedade sumiam. Eles não precisavam prometer me ajudar, só a sua presença já me dava a certeza de que tudo ia dar certo e ser resolvido. E depois que eles chegavam, o meu único interesse era ver o que eles iam fazer. Talvez fossem pais excepcionais que conseguiram cultivar confiança no coração dos filhos. Acho que sim. Mas tendo em vista que o nosso Deus é um Deus excepcional, essa analogia é poderosa, pois a Sua presença é tudo o que precisamos.
Quantas vezes na BÃblia Ele calou os questionamentos e temores simplesmente dizendo: “Estou contigo”. E quem pode duvidar que por meio dessas palavras Ele quisesse nos garantir que toda a Sua sabedoria, amor e onipotência estariam intercedendo em nosso favor?
Até hoje eu lembro da sensação de plena segurança quando meu pai estava perto. Eu nunca sentia medo algum com ele do meu lado. Certamente, com o meu Pai do Céu não existe espaço para o medo.—Hannah Whitall Smith[1]
*
“Assim como estive com Moisés, estarei com você; nunca o deixarei, nunca o abandonarei.” (Josué 1:5).
Todos nós conhecemos as limitações e incapacidades de Moisés, no entanto ele foi grandemente usado pelo Senhor. Apesar de tudo ele foi um instrumento de Deus para lançar as pragas sobre o Egito, dividir o mar Vermelho, e, milagrosamente, alimentar e guiar os filhos de Israel durante quarenta anos. Uma proeza! Imagine ser o sucessor de Moisés depois de tudo isso. Foi exatamente a situação de Josué. Eu não tenho a mÃnima ideia do que se passava pela cabeça de Josué na ocasião, mas ele devia pensar como conseguiria viver à altura de Moisés. Mas o Senhor consolou e assegurou a Josué: “Estarei com você assim como estive com Moisés!”
Essas palavras para Josué se aplicam a nós ainda hoje. Sabe por quê? Todos os homens e mulheres que realizaram grandes coisas para o Senhor eram pessoas comuns que tinham um Deus grandioso. O mesmo Deus que acompanhou Moisés, Elias, Daniel, e todos os grandes homens e mulheres de Deus, está conosco hoje!—George Whitten[2]
*
O que significa “Deus conosco”? … A partÃcula grega usada é forte e expressa a forma mais firme de “estar com”. Não se trata apenas de “estar na companhia de”, como seria a tradução de outro vocábulo grego, mas “conosco”, “compartilhando conosco”, “junto conosco”. Denota um forte vÃnculo, dando a entender, ou mesmo afirmando um contato muito próximo. Deus está perto e de uma maneira singular “conosco”.
Cristo Jesus foi o homem dos homens, o segundo Adão, o modelo de homem! … É raro encontrar um lugar na jornada da vida onde Jesus não tenha parado, ou um trecho exaustivo que Ele não tenha feito. Desde o portão de entrada até à porta que encerra a jornada da vida, é possÃvel rastrear as pegadas de Jesus. Você estava no bercinho? Jesus esteve na mesma situação. O seu filho estava sujeito à autoridade dos pais? Cristo também passou por isso, um rapazinho em casa em Nazaré. Você enfrentou a batalha da vida? O seu Senhor e Mestre também o fez. …Não existe dor que dilacere o coração — poderia até dizer, que cause sofrimento ao corpo — que Jesus Cristo não tenha estado ao nosso lado e sentido o mesmo.
Você sofre com a pobreza? Ele “não tinha onde recostar a cabeça.”[3] Você está chorando a morte de alguém? Jesus “chorou” junto ao túmulo de Lázaro.[4] Você foi caluniado por amor à justiça e sentiu-se injuriado e de coração partido? Ele disse: “A zombaria partiu meu coração.”[5] Você já foi traÃdo? Não se esqueça que Ele também teve um amigo próximo que O vendeu pelo preço de um escravo. Você nunca enfrentou nenhuma tempestade em alto mar que Jesus também não tenha enfrentado. Por maiores e mais tenebrosas que sejam as adversidades, por pior que seja a perspectiva, se procurar bem lá embaixo, encontrará as pegadas dAquele que foi crucificado. No fogo, nas águas, na noite fria e no sol escaldante, Ele clama: “Eu estou com você. Não se assombre, pois sou o seu Companheiro e Deus.”—Charles Spurgeon[6]
*
Não desista diante quando surgem dificuldades e as tempestades rugem ao redor, nas noites escuras ou no profundo desencorajamento! Olhe para Jesus, o autor e consumador da sua fé.[7] Jesus está com você. Ele está com você na hora escura. Ele está ao seu lado na provação. Ele o acompanha porque o ama. Ele está ali para ajudá-lo a vencer.—David Brandt Berg
*
O nosso Deus não é um ser distante e desinteressado. Ele é um Deus pessoal que tem uma relação com a Sua criação. Ele Se revelou a nós por meio da Palavra. Mostrou-nos parcialmente como Ele é. Deus está interessado em nós individualmente. Por meio da salvação Ele abriu caminho para vivermos junto com Ele para sempre. Pela fé em Jesus, Deus Filho, nós nos tornamos filhos de Deus, com condições de tocá-lO de uma maneira pessoal, de nos comunicarmos com Ele, ouvirmos Sua voz, e compartilharmos nossos corações. Ele tem comunhão conosco, habita em nós e nos ama. Nós temos comunhão com Ele, habitamos nEle, e O amamos. Temos uma relação com um Deus pessoal. É incrÃvel e maravilhoso!—Peter Amsterdam
Publicado no Âncora em setembro 2014. Tradução Hebe Rondon Flandoli.
Footnotes:
[1] Adaptado de A Christian’s Secret of a Happy Life (1875).
[2] http://www.worthydevotions.com/christian-devotional/emmanuel-god-with-us
[3] Mateus 8:20.
[4] João 11:35.
[5] Salmo 69:20.
[6] http://www.ccel.org/ccel/spurgeon/sermons21.lxi.html
[7] Hebreus 12:2.
Uma compilação
Poucas pessoas entendem o sentido pleno de Mateus 1:23: “E lhe chamarão Emanuel" que significa "Deus conosco.” Esta curta frase nos revela o mais grandioso fato neste mundo, que Deus, o Deus onipotente, o criador dos céus e da terra, não é uma divindade longÃnqua que habita em um Céu glorioso e inalcançável. Ele está aqui ao nosso lado, neste mundo, no meio de nós, pobres, ignorantes e indefesas pessoas, tão perto quanto nós estamos de nós mesmos. Para o ser humano é assombroso que é difÃcil acreditar. Mas a BÃblia ensina isso como um fato. No princÃpio de tudo, no Gênesis, fala da “presença do Senhor Deus entre as árvores no jardim”. E a partir daà Ele sempre nos é revelado em interação familiar e diária com o Seu povo.
Em Êxodo, Ele pede para fazermos “um santuário para que possa habitar entre o povo”. Existem registros de que Ele “caminhou” com eles no ermo, e “habitou” com eles na Terra Prometida. Ele ensinou ao povo que deviam contar com Ele como um amigo e auxÃlio sempre presente, a consultá-lO sobre suas situações, e deixarem por conta dEle a gestão de suas vidas. E, por fim, Ele veio na forma humana por meio de Cristo e habitou entre os homens. Ele veio em carne e osso, como nós, com a nossa natureza, revelando-nos da maneira mais tangÃvel e real possÃvel o grandioso, bem-aventurado e incompreensÃvel fato de que pretendia estar conosco sempre, até à consumação dos séculos.
Quem acreditar nisso de todo o coração encontrará a solução para toda e qualquer dificuldade na vida.
Lembro-me que quando era pequena, meus pais estavam presentes, ao meu lado para me ajudar, quando eu tinha um problema ou dificuldade. Assim que ouvia um deles dizer, “filha, estou aqui”, o peso e a ansiedade sumiam. Eles não precisavam prometer me ajudar, só a sua presença já me dava a certeza de que tudo ia dar certo e ser resolvido. E depois que eles chegavam, o meu único interesse era ver o que eles iam fazer. Talvez fossem pais excepcionais que conseguiram cultivar confiança no coração dos filhos. Acho que sim. Mas tendo em vista que o nosso Deus é um Deus excepcional, essa analogia é poderosa, pois a Sua presença é tudo o que precisamos.
Quantas vezes na BÃblia Ele calou os questionamentos e temores simplesmente dizendo: “Estou contigo”. E quem pode duvidar que por meio dessas palavras Ele quisesse nos garantir que toda a Sua sabedoria, amor e onipotência estariam intercedendo em nosso favor?
Até hoje eu lembro da sensação de plena segurança quando meu pai estava perto. Eu nunca sentia medo algum com ele do meu lado. Certamente, com o meu Pai do Céu não existe espaço para o medo.—Hannah Whitall Smith[1]
*
“Assim como estive com Moisés, estarei com você; nunca o deixarei, nunca o abandonarei.” (Josué 1:5).
Todos nós conhecemos as limitações e incapacidades de Moisés, no entanto ele foi grandemente usado pelo Senhor. Apesar de tudo ele foi um instrumento de Deus para lançar as pragas sobre o Egito, dividir o mar Vermelho, e, milagrosamente, alimentar e guiar os filhos de Israel durante quarenta anos. Uma proeza! Imagine ser o sucessor de Moisés depois de tudo isso. Foi exatamente a situação de Josué. Eu não tenho a mÃnima ideia do que se passava pela cabeça de Josué na ocasião, mas ele devia pensar como conseguiria viver à altura de Moisés. Mas o Senhor consolou e assegurou a Josué: “Estarei com você assim como estive com Moisés!”
Essas palavras para Josué se aplicam a nós ainda hoje. Sabe por quê? Todos os homens e mulheres que realizaram grandes coisas para o Senhor eram pessoas comuns que tinham um Deus grandioso. O mesmo Deus que acompanhou Moisés, Elias, Daniel, e todos os grandes homens e mulheres de Deus, está conosco hoje!—George Whitten[2]
*
O que significa “Deus conosco”? … A partÃcula grega usada é forte e expressa a forma mais firme de “estar com”. Não se trata apenas de “estar na companhia de”, como seria a tradução de outro vocábulo grego, mas “conosco”, “compartilhando conosco”, “junto conosco”. Denota um forte vÃnculo, dando a entender, ou mesmo afirmando um contato muito próximo. Deus está perto e de uma maneira singular “conosco”.
Cristo Jesus foi o homem dos homens, o segundo Adão, o modelo de homem! … É raro encontrar um lugar na jornada da vida onde Jesus não tenha parado, ou um trecho exaustivo que Ele não tenha feito. Desde o portão de entrada até à porta que encerra a jornada da vida, é possÃvel rastrear as pegadas de Jesus. Você estava no bercinho? Jesus esteve na mesma situação. O seu filho estava sujeito à autoridade dos pais? Cristo também passou por isso, um rapazinho em casa em Nazaré. Você enfrentou a batalha da vida? O seu Senhor e Mestre também o fez. …Não existe dor que dilacere o coração — poderia até dizer, que cause sofrimento ao corpo — que Jesus Cristo não tenha estado ao nosso lado e sentido o mesmo.
Você sofre com a pobreza? Ele “não tinha onde recostar a cabeça.”[3] Você está chorando a morte de alguém? Jesus “chorou” junto ao túmulo de Lázaro.[4] Você foi caluniado por amor à justiça e sentiu-se injuriado e de coração partido? Ele disse: “A zombaria partiu meu coração.”[5] Você já foi traÃdo? Não se esqueça que Ele também teve um amigo próximo que O vendeu pelo preço de um escravo. Você nunca enfrentou nenhuma tempestade em alto mar que Jesus também não tenha enfrentado. Por maiores e mais tenebrosas que sejam as adversidades, por pior que seja a perspectiva, se procurar bem lá embaixo, encontrará as pegadas dAquele que foi crucificado. No fogo, nas águas, na noite fria e no sol escaldante, Ele clama: “Eu estou com você. Não se assombre, pois sou o seu Companheiro e Deus.”—Charles Spurgeon[6]
*
Não desista diante quando surgem dificuldades e as tempestades rugem ao redor, nas noites escuras ou no profundo desencorajamento! Olhe para Jesus, o autor e consumador da sua fé.[7] Jesus está com você. Ele está com você na hora escura. Ele está ao seu lado na provação. Ele o acompanha porque o ama. Ele está ali para ajudá-lo a vencer.—David Brandt Berg
*
O nosso Deus não é um ser distante e desinteressado. Ele é um Deus pessoal que tem uma relação com a Sua criação. Ele Se revelou a nós por meio da Palavra. Mostrou-nos parcialmente como Ele é. Deus está interessado em nós individualmente. Por meio da salvação Ele abriu caminho para vivermos junto com Ele para sempre. Pela fé em Jesus, Deus Filho, nós nos tornamos filhos de Deus, com condições de tocá-lO de uma maneira pessoal, de nos comunicarmos com Ele, ouvirmos Sua voz, e compartilharmos nossos corações. Ele tem comunhão conosco, habita em nós e nos ama. Nós temos comunhão com Ele, habitamos nEle, e O amamos. Temos uma relação com um Deus pessoal. É incrÃvel e maravilhoso!—Peter Amsterdam
Publicado no Âncora em setembro 2014. Tradução Hebe Rondon Flandoli.
Footnotes:
[1] Adaptado de A Christian’s Secret of a Happy Life (1875).
[2] http://www.worthydevotions.com/christian-devotional/emmanuel-god-with-us
[3] Mateus 8:20.
[4] João 11:35.
[5] Salmo 69:20.
[6] http://www.ccel.org/ccel/spurgeon/sermons21.lxi.html
[7] Hebreus 12:2.
When the Load Is Too Heavy
http://anchor.tfionline.com/post/when-load-too-heavy/
Words from Jesus
Audio length: 9:40
Download Audio (8.8MB)
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, but a man who is wiser yet will learn from the mistakes of others. You can learn not only from the mistakes of others, but from their example and lessons. Learn from the example of My servant, Martin Luther, who took twice as much time in prayer, in communion, and in solitude with Me, when he found he had too much to do.
Fear not, you who are burdened and heavy laden. Fear not, but come unto Me. I see that you are in need of rest. Come unto Me with all your burdens and I will give you rest. The secret to entering into My rest is to cast your cares completely upon Me. I will give you rest. I give My beloved rest and sweet sleep. You will lie down and your sleep will be sweet as you rest in Me.
You are My beloved child in whom I am well pleased. I will not allow one measure more of task or burden than you are able to bear. I am the giver of strength, and I will strengthen you for the tasks at hand and for the tasks in the future. But in order for Me to strengthen you, you must come to Me and lay down your burden. Cast your cares upon Me and I will care for you.
Don’t fret yourself for tomorrow, for as I have promised, tomorrow will take care of itself as you cast your burden on Me and continue to cast it on Me. Don’t worry about even one hour from now—not even one minute from now—but rather stand on your faith for this moment in time, and I will sustain you, as I have promised.
Are you worried and burdened with the strain of it all? This is the time to fly to Me on the wings of prayer, on the wings of My Spirit, and I will sustain you. The mountain that you see ahead on the horizon is huge; it is monumental, and too big for you to climb. The pathway is narrow, rugged, and winding—very winding. It is very steep, as it winds and turns this way, that way, up and around. It is a narrow path and a rugged climb up the steep mountain trail. Many of the people you meet along the way are not always nice, and the obstacles that you must climb over test your abilities. It is too hard to climb for you, but not too hard for Me.
Don’t worry about how you will make the climb, for you were not intended to go it alone. These burdens and obstacles you see before you were not designed to fit your narrow shoulders, but they were intended for Me to carry as I lift you up and bear the burdens for you. In My love and compassion I have fashioned it so, that you may draw close to Me in the way everlasting, so that you will lean hard on Me. I will carry you through, if you will continue to cast all your cares upon Me.
I am the good shepherd, and I lead My sheep. I lead you in the paths of righteousness. I lead you in the path of My will, and where I lead, I also provide the strength. When you are unable to continue, when your strength is little, when you feel the burden and the strain of the rigorous path that is set before you, that is when I will carry you. As your good shepherd, I have gone on ahead. I have prepared the way.
This is the secret. This is the answer to accomplishing that which is set before you. This is the solution. You know in your heart and mind that I have never failed in one of all My good promises, and I will not fail in this either.
Do not look down at the waves, but look up! Look up into My face. Lie back in My everlasting arms. Lay your burdens, your weights, and your problems on the altar and leave them there, and I will sustain you. Don’t pick them up again and walk off with them, but rather leave them safely in My care.
As you fly to Me on the wings of prayer, as you retreat in rest and refilling, day by day, step by step, moment by moment, I will give you the solutions that will guide you across or through the mountains before you. But you must rest. You must keep resting. You must lean wholly on Me. Don’t try to put the cart before the horse.
Don’t look down at the waves, but look up! Look up to Me! Praise is the voice of faith. Praise Me for the answer even before it comes, then keep praising and praising again. And you will soon see the answer. The answer is coming. It is on its way, but you must keep on trusting. Don’t faint in your mind, but fight on!
You can only do what you can do, and then you must leave the rest to Me. This is why I allow the burden to be so heavy at times—so that you might lean hard, completely and utterly upon Me. But I never allow more to be put upon your shoulders than you are able to bear. As you cast your burden upon Me, you will learn to avail yourself of My full strength, that you may revel in My mighty power to overcome all things. And My strength will be perfected in you as it brings on the victories and the triumphs and the healing that you so desperately need.
Be as a wise man that learns from the example of others. Look to the example of My servant, Martin Luther, who when he had a task too big, too hard, pulled back and took double time in prayer and sweet communion with Me. You ask how you will ever accomplish your long to-do list? Do as Luther did. When he entered into his closet to pray, he entered empty. He emptied all of his pockets. He opened his heart and cast all of his burdens on My altar and left them there. This is the secret of quiet rest—casting all your care upon Me, knowing that I care for you, knowing that I have always taken care of every problem, every detail, and I always will!
Beloved, don’t let your heart be troubled by these seemingly impossible situations that you face, for I am able to bring solutions, answers to your prayers, and miracles. I will perform in each and every situation, as you stand back and watch Me fight on your behalf.
Let not your heart be troubled. Lie back and rest in My tender arms, and know that I look down with shining face upon you. I hold you, I carry you, and I will empower you with powers equal to the task, for you are the work of My hands. Know that I will never leave you nor forsake you.
*
We have this treasure in earthen vessels, that the excellence of the power may be of God and not of us. We are troubled on every side, yet we are not in distress; we are perplexed, but not in despair; persecuted, but not forsaken; cast down, but not destroyed.—2 Corinthians 4:7–91
For this cause we faint not; but though our outward man perish, yet the inward man is renewed day by day. For our light affliction, which is but for a moment, worketh for us a far more exceeding and eternal weight of glory. While we look not at the things which are seen, but at the things which are not seen: for the things which are seen are temporal; but the things which are not seen are eternal.—2 Corinthians 4:16–182
I know whom I have believed, and am persuaded that He is able to keep that which I have committed unto Him against that day. Now unto Him that is able to do exceeding abundantly above all that we ask or think, according to the power that works in us, to Him be glory.—2 Timothy 1:12; Ephesians 3:20–213
Originally published September 1996. Adapted and republished September 2014.
Read by Jon Marc.
Footnotes:
1 NKJV.
2 KJV.
3 KJV.
Words from Jesus
Audio length: 9:40
Download Audio (8.8MB)
A wise man learns from his own mistakes, but a man who is wiser yet will learn from the mistakes of others. You can learn not only from the mistakes of others, but from their example and lessons. Learn from the example of My servant, Martin Luther, who took twice as much time in prayer, in communion, and in solitude with Me, when he found he had too much to do.
Fear not, you who are burdened and heavy laden. Fear not, but come unto Me. I see that you are in need of rest. Come unto Me with all your burdens and I will give you rest. The secret to entering into My rest is to cast your cares completely upon Me. I will give you rest. I give My beloved rest and sweet sleep. You will lie down and your sleep will be sweet as you rest in Me.
You are My beloved child in whom I am well pleased. I will not allow one measure more of task or burden than you are able to bear. I am the giver of strength, and I will strengthen you for the tasks at hand and for the tasks in the future. But in order for Me to strengthen you, you must come to Me and lay down your burden. Cast your cares upon Me and I will care for you.
Don’t fret yourself for tomorrow, for as I have promised, tomorrow will take care of itself as you cast your burden on Me and continue to cast it on Me. Don’t worry about even one hour from now—not even one minute from now—but rather stand on your faith for this moment in time, and I will sustain you, as I have promised.
Are you worried and burdened with the strain of it all? This is the time to fly to Me on the wings of prayer, on the wings of My Spirit, and I will sustain you. The mountain that you see ahead on the horizon is huge; it is monumental, and too big for you to climb. The pathway is narrow, rugged, and winding—very winding. It is very steep, as it winds and turns this way, that way, up and around. It is a narrow path and a rugged climb up the steep mountain trail. Many of the people you meet along the way are not always nice, and the obstacles that you must climb over test your abilities. It is too hard to climb for you, but not too hard for Me.
Don’t worry about how you will make the climb, for you were not intended to go it alone. These burdens and obstacles you see before you were not designed to fit your narrow shoulders, but they were intended for Me to carry as I lift you up and bear the burdens for you. In My love and compassion I have fashioned it so, that you may draw close to Me in the way everlasting, so that you will lean hard on Me. I will carry you through, if you will continue to cast all your cares upon Me.
I am the good shepherd, and I lead My sheep. I lead you in the paths of righteousness. I lead you in the path of My will, and where I lead, I also provide the strength. When you are unable to continue, when your strength is little, when you feel the burden and the strain of the rigorous path that is set before you, that is when I will carry you. As your good shepherd, I have gone on ahead. I have prepared the way.
This is the secret. This is the answer to accomplishing that which is set before you. This is the solution. You know in your heart and mind that I have never failed in one of all My good promises, and I will not fail in this either.
Do not look down at the waves, but look up! Look up into My face. Lie back in My everlasting arms. Lay your burdens, your weights, and your problems on the altar and leave them there, and I will sustain you. Don’t pick them up again and walk off with them, but rather leave them safely in My care.
As you fly to Me on the wings of prayer, as you retreat in rest and refilling, day by day, step by step, moment by moment, I will give you the solutions that will guide you across or through the mountains before you. But you must rest. You must keep resting. You must lean wholly on Me. Don’t try to put the cart before the horse.
Don’t look down at the waves, but look up! Look up to Me! Praise is the voice of faith. Praise Me for the answer even before it comes, then keep praising and praising again. And you will soon see the answer. The answer is coming. It is on its way, but you must keep on trusting. Don’t faint in your mind, but fight on!
You can only do what you can do, and then you must leave the rest to Me. This is why I allow the burden to be so heavy at times—so that you might lean hard, completely and utterly upon Me. But I never allow more to be put upon your shoulders than you are able to bear. As you cast your burden upon Me, you will learn to avail yourself of My full strength, that you may revel in My mighty power to overcome all things. And My strength will be perfected in you as it brings on the victories and the triumphs and the healing that you so desperately need.
Be as a wise man that learns from the example of others. Look to the example of My servant, Martin Luther, who when he had a task too big, too hard, pulled back and took double time in prayer and sweet communion with Me. You ask how you will ever accomplish your long to-do list? Do as Luther did. When he entered into his closet to pray, he entered empty. He emptied all of his pockets. He opened his heart and cast all of his burdens on My altar and left them there. This is the secret of quiet rest—casting all your care upon Me, knowing that I care for you, knowing that I have always taken care of every problem, every detail, and I always will!
Beloved, don’t let your heart be troubled by these seemingly impossible situations that you face, for I am able to bring solutions, answers to your prayers, and miracles. I will perform in each and every situation, as you stand back and watch Me fight on your behalf.
Let not your heart be troubled. Lie back and rest in My tender arms, and know that I look down with shining face upon you. I hold you, I carry you, and I will empower you with powers equal to the task, for you are the work of My hands. Know that I will never leave you nor forsake you.
*
We have this treasure in earthen vessels, that the excellence of the power may be of God and not of us. We are troubled on every side, yet we are not in distress; we are perplexed, but not in despair; persecuted, but not forsaken; cast down, but not destroyed.—2 Corinthians 4:7–91
For this cause we faint not; but though our outward man perish, yet the inward man is renewed day by day. For our light affliction, which is but for a moment, worketh for us a far more exceeding and eternal weight of glory. While we look not at the things which are seen, but at the things which are not seen: for the things which are seen are temporal; but the things which are not seen are eternal.—2 Corinthians 4:16–182
I know whom I have believed, and am persuaded that He is able to keep that which I have committed unto Him against that day. Now unto Him that is able to do exceeding abundantly above all that we ask or think, according to the power that works in us, to Him be glory.—2 Timothy 1:12; Ephesians 3:20–213
Originally published September 1996. Adapted and republished September 2014.
Read by Jon Marc.
Footnotes:
1 NKJV.
2 KJV.
3 KJV.
Planos para Você Prosperar
Palavras de Jesus http://anchor.tfionline.com/pt/post/planos-para-voce-prosperar/
“Porque sou eu que conheço os planos que tenho para vocês", diz o Senhor, "planos de fazê-los prosperar e não de lhes causar dano, planos de dar-lhes esperança e um futuro.”—Jeremias 29:11[1]
*
Eu sou o seu Pastor. Estou guiando você a uma porta e peço que abra e entre. Eu não forço ninguém a passar pelas portas que ofereço, porque desejo que Meus filhos tomem suas próprias decisões com base no seu amor por Mim. Mas a porta está ali, e se você entrar por ela encontrará uma grande luz, pois Eu sou o caminho, a verdade e a vida. Ali você terá uma vida plena, repleta de amor e realização. Eu sou a vida, e aquele que Me entrega a sua vida viverá para sempre, e encontrará felicidade não só nesta vida, mas também na vida por vir.
Portanto não tema empurrar a porta e entrar. Ao abrir a porta por fé e dar o primeiro passo, Eu lhe darei fé para o passo seguinte, mesmo que você não consiga ver a direção em que está indo. Se estiver trilhando o caminho que lhe preparei, não há erro, não há maior vocação na vida. Não existe maior sentimento de realização do que escolher a vida que Eu, o arquiteto do universo, ofereci para você.
Desde que nasceu, Eu nunca tirei os olhos de você. Eu tenho cuidado e planejado para você. Eu o tenho amado a cada momento, desde o princÃpio dos tempos, e continuarei até o fim dos tempos. Sendo assim, confie a Mim a sua vida, pois tenho planos para o seu futuro.
Sua força e escudo
O Senhor é a minha força e o meu escudo; nele o meu coração confia, e dele recebo ajuda. Meu coração exulta de alegria, e com o meu cântico lhe darei graças.—Salmo 28:7[2]
*
Eu sou a sua força e escudo. Muito antes de você se levantar de manhã Eu já planejei e preparei cada dia. Eu também lhe dou forças para cada passo do caminho. Em vez de avaliar seu nÃvel de energia e se indagar a respeito do que vai enfrentar adiante, concentre-se em permanecer em sintonia Comigo. O Meu poder flui livremente para você através da comunicação aberta que temos. Recuse-se a desperdiçar energia se preocupando, e terá força de sobra.
Sempre que começar a sentir medo, lembre-se que Eu sou o seu Escudo. Mas Eu, ao contrário de um escudo inanimado, estou sempre alerta e ativo. A Minha presença o vigia continuamente, protegendo-o de perigos conhecidos e desconhecidos. Entregue-se a Mim para receber os Meus cuidados. Esse é o melhor sistema de segurança que existe. Estou ao seu lado e cuidarei de você aonde quer que vá.[3]
Rodeado
Conservemos os nossos olhos fixos em Jesus, que iniciou e terminou a corrida que nós corremos. Observe e estude como Ele o fez, pois não desistiu da meta, de chegar ao final emocionante com Deus, e assim conseguiu suportar tudo: cruz, ignomÃnia, seja o que for. E agora ele está em um lugar de honra ao lado de Deus. Quando você perceber que está vacilando na fé, releia essa história, ponto a ponto, cada adversidade que Ele enfrentou. Com certeza vai encher sua alma de adrenalina!—Hebreus 12:1–3[4]
*
Vendo pois que está rodeado de uma tão grande nuvem de testemunhas, deixe todo o embaraço e os pesos que o sobrecarregam e olhe para Jesus, autor e consumador da sua fé. Eu chamei você para pôr de lado os pesos. Neste exato momento, você está rodeado de uma grande nuvem de testemunhas, tão grande que, se Eu abrisse seus olhos espirituais veria que enche esta sala!
Desperte os dons que estão em você. Busque-Me e clame a Mim, e Me encontrará. Você não só ouvirá uma voz por trás dizendo: “Este é o caminho, andai nele”, mas também a ouvirá à esquerda e à direita no seu coração.
Não a minha vontade
Deleita-te também no Senhor, e te concederá os desejos do teu coração. Entrega o teu caminho ao Senhor; confia nele, e ele o fará. E ele fará sobressair a tua justiça como a luz, e o teu juÃzo como o meio-dia.—Salmo 37:4–6[5]
*
Eu sou o Jardineiro-chefe. Sou o Paisagista-chefe. Coloquei essas sementes na sua mão e você as plantou, regou, e cuidou delas. Mas ao olhar para o seu jardim, vejo uma erva daninha feia e maligna que contamina, prejudica e importuna. Você tentou arrancá-la. Você a cortou e a queimou, quis tanto livrar o seu jardim dessa praga!
Mas para livrar o seu jardim desta erva daninha, você tem que escavar profundamente, bem abaixo da superfÃcie do solo. Deve chegar ao fundo, à s raÃzes, pois esse mato tem uma origem. Tem uma raiz bem profunda que é a origem desta erva daninha.
Se quer que o seu jardim seja bonito e não tenha mato e pragas, tem que escavar fundo e cortar a raiz da insubmissão. Entregue-se totalmente a Mim e diga: "Não seja como eu quero, mas como Tu queres."
Quando se dispõe a colocar seus planos em Minhas mãos, quando se torna maleável e submisso de coração e vida, desejando ardentemente se libertar dessas coisas para ter o Meu EspÃrito mais abundantemente, então será libertado e o seu jardim ficará mais lindo do que nunca. O jardim florescerá! E Me glorificará.
Siga a Minha orientação
Portanto, temos sempre confiança e sabemos que, enquanto estamos no corpo, estamos longe do Senhor. Porque vivemos por fé, e não pelo que vemos.—2 CorÃntios 5:6–7[6]
*
Disponha-se a seguir aonde Eu guiar. Siga-Me de todo o coração, a passos largos, com excitamento. Mesmo que não saiba o que o espera, Eu sei, e isso basta! Algumas das Minhas maiores bênçãos estão ao virar da esquina, fora de vista, mas muito reais. Para receber esses presentes é preciso andar por fé e não por vista . Isso não significa ignorar o que está ao redor, mas subordinar o mundo visÃvel ao Pastor da sua alma que age fora de vista.
Às vezes Eu o guio a um alto monte, apoiado apenas pela Minha mão. Quanto mais sobe, mais espetacular a vista, e mais evidente fica que está se desprendendo do mundo com todos os seus problemas. Você se sente livre para vivenciar a alegria exuberante da Minha presença. Entregue-se totalmente a esses momentos de glória, banhe-se nessa luz deslumbrante. Na hora certa Eu o levarei de volta lá para baixo para o convÃvio com outros. E ao voltar, continue deixando a Minha luz brilhar dentro de você.[7]
*
O teu amor, Senhor, chega até os céus; a tua fidelidade até as nuvens.
A tua justiça é firme como as altas montanhas; as tuas decisões insondáveis como o grande mar. Tu, Senhor, preservas tanto os homens quanto os animais.
Como é precioso o teu amor, ó Deus! Os homens encontram refúgio à sombra das tuas asas.
Eles se banqueteiam na fartura da tua casa; tu lhes dás de beber do teu rio de delÃcias.
Pois em ti está a fonte da vida; graças à tua luz, vemos a luz.—Salmo 36:5–9[8]
Publicado originalmente em 1997, salvo indicação contrária. Adaptado e republicado em setembro 2014. Tradução Hebe Rondon Flandoli.
Footnotes:
[1] NVI.
[2] NVI.
[3] Sarah Young, Jesus Calling (Nashville: Thomas Nelson, 2010).
[4] Tradução livre.
[5] RC.
[6] NVIB.
[7] Sarah Young, Jesus Calling (Nashville: Thomas Nelson, 2010).
[8] NVI.
“Porque sou eu que conheço os planos que tenho para vocês", diz o Senhor, "planos de fazê-los prosperar e não de lhes causar dano, planos de dar-lhes esperança e um futuro.”—Jeremias 29:11[1]
*
Eu sou o seu Pastor. Estou guiando você a uma porta e peço que abra e entre. Eu não forço ninguém a passar pelas portas que ofereço, porque desejo que Meus filhos tomem suas próprias decisões com base no seu amor por Mim. Mas a porta está ali, e se você entrar por ela encontrará uma grande luz, pois Eu sou o caminho, a verdade e a vida. Ali você terá uma vida plena, repleta de amor e realização. Eu sou a vida, e aquele que Me entrega a sua vida viverá para sempre, e encontrará felicidade não só nesta vida, mas também na vida por vir.
Portanto não tema empurrar a porta e entrar. Ao abrir a porta por fé e dar o primeiro passo, Eu lhe darei fé para o passo seguinte, mesmo que você não consiga ver a direção em que está indo. Se estiver trilhando o caminho que lhe preparei, não há erro, não há maior vocação na vida. Não existe maior sentimento de realização do que escolher a vida que Eu, o arquiteto do universo, ofereci para você.
Desde que nasceu, Eu nunca tirei os olhos de você. Eu tenho cuidado e planejado para você. Eu o tenho amado a cada momento, desde o princÃpio dos tempos, e continuarei até o fim dos tempos. Sendo assim, confie a Mim a sua vida, pois tenho planos para o seu futuro.
Sua força e escudo
O Senhor é a minha força e o meu escudo; nele o meu coração confia, e dele recebo ajuda. Meu coração exulta de alegria, e com o meu cântico lhe darei graças.—Salmo 28:7[2]
*
Eu sou a sua força e escudo. Muito antes de você se levantar de manhã Eu já planejei e preparei cada dia. Eu também lhe dou forças para cada passo do caminho. Em vez de avaliar seu nÃvel de energia e se indagar a respeito do que vai enfrentar adiante, concentre-se em permanecer em sintonia Comigo. O Meu poder flui livremente para você através da comunicação aberta que temos. Recuse-se a desperdiçar energia se preocupando, e terá força de sobra.
Sempre que começar a sentir medo, lembre-se que Eu sou o seu Escudo. Mas Eu, ao contrário de um escudo inanimado, estou sempre alerta e ativo. A Minha presença o vigia continuamente, protegendo-o de perigos conhecidos e desconhecidos. Entregue-se a Mim para receber os Meus cuidados. Esse é o melhor sistema de segurança que existe. Estou ao seu lado e cuidarei de você aonde quer que vá.[3]
Rodeado
Conservemos os nossos olhos fixos em Jesus, que iniciou e terminou a corrida que nós corremos. Observe e estude como Ele o fez, pois não desistiu da meta, de chegar ao final emocionante com Deus, e assim conseguiu suportar tudo: cruz, ignomÃnia, seja o que for. E agora ele está em um lugar de honra ao lado de Deus. Quando você perceber que está vacilando na fé, releia essa história, ponto a ponto, cada adversidade que Ele enfrentou. Com certeza vai encher sua alma de adrenalina!—Hebreus 12:1–3[4]
*
Vendo pois que está rodeado de uma tão grande nuvem de testemunhas, deixe todo o embaraço e os pesos que o sobrecarregam e olhe para Jesus, autor e consumador da sua fé. Eu chamei você para pôr de lado os pesos. Neste exato momento, você está rodeado de uma grande nuvem de testemunhas, tão grande que, se Eu abrisse seus olhos espirituais veria que enche esta sala!
Desperte os dons que estão em você. Busque-Me e clame a Mim, e Me encontrará. Você não só ouvirá uma voz por trás dizendo: “Este é o caminho, andai nele”, mas também a ouvirá à esquerda e à direita no seu coração.
Não a minha vontade
Deleita-te também no Senhor, e te concederá os desejos do teu coração. Entrega o teu caminho ao Senhor; confia nele, e ele o fará. E ele fará sobressair a tua justiça como a luz, e o teu juÃzo como o meio-dia.—Salmo 37:4–6[5]
*
Eu sou o Jardineiro-chefe. Sou o Paisagista-chefe. Coloquei essas sementes na sua mão e você as plantou, regou, e cuidou delas. Mas ao olhar para o seu jardim, vejo uma erva daninha feia e maligna que contamina, prejudica e importuna. Você tentou arrancá-la. Você a cortou e a queimou, quis tanto livrar o seu jardim dessa praga!
Mas para livrar o seu jardim desta erva daninha, você tem que escavar profundamente, bem abaixo da superfÃcie do solo. Deve chegar ao fundo, à s raÃzes, pois esse mato tem uma origem. Tem uma raiz bem profunda que é a origem desta erva daninha.
Se quer que o seu jardim seja bonito e não tenha mato e pragas, tem que escavar fundo e cortar a raiz da insubmissão. Entregue-se totalmente a Mim e diga: "Não seja como eu quero, mas como Tu queres."
Quando se dispõe a colocar seus planos em Minhas mãos, quando se torna maleável e submisso de coração e vida, desejando ardentemente se libertar dessas coisas para ter o Meu EspÃrito mais abundantemente, então será libertado e o seu jardim ficará mais lindo do que nunca. O jardim florescerá! E Me glorificará.
Siga a Minha orientação
Portanto, temos sempre confiança e sabemos que, enquanto estamos no corpo, estamos longe do Senhor. Porque vivemos por fé, e não pelo que vemos.—2 CorÃntios 5:6–7[6]
*
Disponha-se a seguir aonde Eu guiar. Siga-Me de todo o coração, a passos largos, com excitamento. Mesmo que não saiba o que o espera, Eu sei, e isso basta! Algumas das Minhas maiores bênçãos estão ao virar da esquina, fora de vista, mas muito reais. Para receber esses presentes é preciso andar por fé e não por vista . Isso não significa ignorar o que está ao redor, mas subordinar o mundo visÃvel ao Pastor da sua alma que age fora de vista.
Às vezes Eu o guio a um alto monte, apoiado apenas pela Minha mão. Quanto mais sobe, mais espetacular a vista, e mais evidente fica que está se desprendendo do mundo com todos os seus problemas. Você se sente livre para vivenciar a alegria exuberante da Minha presença. Entregue-se totalmente a esses momentos de glória, banhe-se nessa luz deslumbrante. Na hora certa Eu o levarei de volta lá para baixo para o convÃvio com outros. E ao voltar, continue deixando a Minha luz brilhar dentro de você.[7]
*
O teu amor, Senhor, chega até os céus; a tua fidelidade até as nuvens.
A tua justiça é firme como as altas montanhas; as tuas decisões insondáveis como o grande mar. Tu, Senhor, preservas tanto os homens quanto os animais.
Como é precioso o teu amor, ó Deus! Os homens encontram refúgio à sombra das tuas asas.
Eles se banqueteiam na fartura da tua casa; tu lhes dás de beber do teu rio de delÃcias.
Pois em ti está a fonte da vida; graças à tua luz, vemos a luz.—Salmo 36:5–9[8]
Publicado originalmente em 1997, salvo indicação contrária. Adaptado e republicado em setembro 2014. Tradução Hebe Rondon Flandoli.
Footnotes:
[1] NVI.
[2] NVI.
[3] Sarah Young, Jesus Calling (Nashville: Thomas Nelson, 2010).
[4] Tradução livre.
[5] RC.
[6] NVIB.
[7] Sarah Young, Jesus Calling (Nashville: Thomas Nelson, 2010).
[8] NVI.
Why Am I Not Getting Answers to Prayer?
Are you having trouble getting answers to prayer? God has promised to supply all your needs, so what is hindering you from getting the answers you so desperately need? Why does it seem like God is not attentive? Let us take a look in the Bible and see if we can find the answer, or a possible solution. We will be reading from the Book of Isaiah.
Cry aloud, spare not, lift up thy voice like a trumpet, and show my people their transgressions, and the house of Jacob their sins.[1]
A trumpet is often used in times of war to stir up the soldiers to get ready for battle, or as a warning of attack, or an awakening sound to prepare for duty. God wants us to wake up and be attentive to what he is about to tell us. We, the Christians, are today’s “house of Jacob,” because we are the descendants of Abraham by faith.[2] God is going to be pointing out to us where we are failing!
Yet they seek me daily, and delight to know my ways, as a nation that did righteousness, and forsook not the ordinances of their God. They ask of me the ordinances of justice; they take delight in approaching to God.[3]
In other words, the people, the religious people, act as if they are good people. They even seek God daily and may even listen to his word. But, they feel good in themselves. They take pleasure in “approaching to God,” whether by masses, prayer meetings, synagogue and temple attendance or New Age exercises like yoga or meditation.
Wherefore have we fasted, say they, and thou seest not? Wherefore have we afflicted our soul, and thou takest no knowledge? Behold, in the day of your fast ye find pleasure, and exact all your labours.[4]
The people have even fasted or denied their flesh some physical pleasure, like the Catholics do during lent, or some Protestants engage in for “purification,” and they are feeling good about their sacrifice. The Jews, Moslems and Hindus have similar “fasting” activities.
Behold, ye fast for strife and debate, and to smite with the fist of wickedness: ye shall not fast as ye do this day, to make your voice to be heard on high.[5]
Fasting to show others how righteous you are is not the way to have your prayers heard. It is religious hypocrisy and often leads to spiritual pride.
Is it such a fast that I have chosen? A day for a man to bow down his head as a bulrush, and to spread sackcloth and ashes under him? wilt thou call this a fast, and an acceptable day to the Lord?[6]
The Lord says that your fast, of denying yourself food and making a big show, is not his fast. Samuel the prophet had said something similar when he corrected Saul for his disobedience.
Hath the Lord as great delight in burnt offerings and sacrifices, as in obeying the voice of the Lord? Behold, to obey is better than sacrifice, and to hearken than the fat of rams.[7]
God wants to be in relation with us so that he can use us to help and encourage others. He wants to use us as vessels of his love, to pour his love on others through us. It is not a matter of sacrificing and fasting, but on being living instruments of his love to the needy world. In Isaiah the Lord explains what a true fast is. It has nothing to do with afflicting oneself by denying oneself food.
Is not this the fast that I have chosen? To loose the bands of wickedness, to undo the heavy burdens, and to let the oppressed go free, and that ye break every yoke?[8]
Are the bands of wickedness that need to be loosed the chains of financial slavery which the rich use to oppress and to afflict the poor? And in the church system, is it the yoke of self-righteous religious rule keeping and commandments that needs to be broken?
Apostle Peter made the same point when he said,
Now therefore why tempt ye God, to put a yoke upon the neck of the disciples, which neither our fathers nor we were able to bear? But we believe that through the grace of the Lord Jesus we shall be saved, even as they.[9]
The religious Jews who had accepted Christ wanted to continue to try and keep the old commandments which never saved them in the first place and which they were unable to keep. They were arguing that the Gentile Christians needed to keep the laws of Moses. Peter and Paul both rejected this rule keeping “yoke.”
Paul went on to say,
Wherefore, my brethren, ye are become dead to the law by the body of Christ; that ye should be married to another, even to him who is raised from the dead, that we should bring forth fruit unto God.[10]
Those who managed to make a better show of keeping the law were so self-righteous in their rule keeping that they had rejected the living God who had walked among them. Paul was telling the disciples that following the law was not the right path. We need to be married to Christ. In other words, we need to be in love with and in communion with Christ and following his leadings to be able to bring forth fruit in our lives. In an earlier place in Isaiah we read:
To what purpose is the multitude of your sacrifices unto me? Saith the Lord: I am full of the burnt offerings of rams, and the fat of fed beats; and I delight not in the blood of bullocks, or of lambs, or of goats.Bring no more vain oblations; incense is an abomination unto me; the new moons and Sabbaths, the calling of assemblies, I cannot away with; it is iniquity, even the solemn meeting.
Your new moons and your appointed feats my soul hateth: they are a trouble unto me; I am weary to bear them.
And when ye spread forth your hands, I will hide mine eyes from you: yea, when ye make many prayers, I will not hear: your hands are full of blood.
Wash you, make you clean; put away the evil of your doings from before mine eyes; cease to do evil; Learn to do well; seek judgment, relieve the oppressed, judge the fatherless, plead for the widow.[11]
Again we see the same principle. God does not want us playing religion. He wants us living lives of love; to help the oppressed, the poor and downtrodden, those who have no voice in today’s world. Is the blood on our hands the blood from the unjustified wars we have waged against other nations? Or is it the blood of the fatherless, the aborted children, like Jeremiah seems to indicate:
Also in thy skirts is found the blood of the poor innocents: I have not found it by secret search, but upon all these.[12]
Let us return to our original study. The Lord is speaking about what the true fast requires.
Is it not to deal thy bread to the hungry, and that thou bring the poor that are cast out to thy house? When thou seest the naked that thou cover him; and that thou hide not thyself from thine own flesh?[13]
It looks like the Lord is interested in our taking care of the poor, even the poor within our own family, however unworthy of our help we may feel they are.
Then shall thy light break forth as the morning, and thine health shall spring forth speedily: and thy righteousness shall go before thee; the glory of the Lord shall be thy rereward.[14]
Again we see the rewards for taking care of the poor, for fighting oppression, for even being loving and helpful to those of our own family. We will have happiness and clarity of purpose. We will find health. We will feel good about ourselves, and finally, we will have God’s presence in our lives which may even make our faces to shine.
Then shall thou call, and the Lord shall answer; thou shalt cry, and he shall say, Here I am. If thou take away from the midst of thee the yoke, the putting forth of the finger, and speaking vanity:[15]
If we make the right kind of fast which involves considering the poor, God will be attentive to our cry. God does not want the yoke of rule keeping, nor for us to look down self-righteously on others. He does not want vain speech. He wants our loving actions.
And if thou draw out thy soul to the hungry, and satisfy the afflicted soul; then shall thy light rise in obscurity and thy darkness be as the noon day:[16]
That “if-then” phrase is the formula for blessing. You do this and then I will bless you. If you do this, then I will hear your prayer or be attentive to your affliction. You want me to be attentive to you? Be attentive to those who need your help.
And the Lord shall guide thee continually, and satisfy thy soul in drought, and make fat thy bones: and thou shalt be like a watered garden, and like a spring of water, whose waters fail not.[17]
The secret of wealth and health is here: Consider the Poor! God promises you his blessing. Do you want God’s blessing and his protection? Do you want him to answer your prayers and prosper your ways? Then Consider the Poor! It’s the key to your relationship with God.
The Lord wants to be in relationship with us. He does not want our false religiosity. He wants us to delight in loving him and hearing his words and following their admonitions. If we do so he says,
Then shalt thou delight thyself in the Lord; and I will cause thee to ride upon the high places of the earth, and feed thee with the heritage of Jacob thy father: for the mouth of the Lord hath spoken it.[18]
In other words, God's promises to Abraham and Jacob of blessing and supply shall be ours.
Let’s finish with the stirring words of Jesus himself.
Then shall the King say unto them on his right hand, Come, ye blessed of my Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world: For I was an hungered, and ye gave me meat: I was thirsty, and ye gave me drink: I was a stranger, and ye took me in: Naked, and ye clothed me: I was sick, and ye visited me: I was in prison, and ye came unto me. Then shall the righteous answer him, saying, Lord, when saw we thee an hungered, and fed thee? Or thirsty, and gave thee drink? When saw we thee a stranger, and took thee in? or naked, and clothed thee? Or when saw we thee sick, or in prison, and came unto thee?
And the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me.[19]
It behooves us, therefore, to Consider the Poor. Do it today. Tomorrow may be too late!
Footnotes:
[1] Isaiah 58:1
[2] Galatians 3:29
[3] Isaiah 58:2
[4] Isaiah 58:3
[5] Isaiah 58:4
[6] Isaiah 58:5
[7] I Samuel 15:22
[8] Isaiah 58:6
[9] Acts 15:10
[10] Romans 7:4
[11] Isaiah 1: 11,13-17
[12] Jeremiah 2:34
[13] Isaiah 58:7
[14] Isaiah 58:8
[15] Isaiah 58:9
[16] Isaiah 58:10
[17] Isaiah 58:11
[18] Isaiah 58:14
[19]Matthew 25:34-40
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Yes to What? – The Scottish Conundrum
by James Corbett
corbettreport.com
September 17, 2014
This article originally appeared in The Corbett Report Subscriber newsletter on September 13, 2014. To subscribe to the newsletter and become a member of The Corbett Report website, please sign up for a monthly or annual membership here.
This week the Scots will go to the polls to answer a deceptively simple question:
“Should Scotland be an independent country?”
The question’s simplicity belies the enormity of what is being asked. In centuries past, such a sovereignty proclamation would only have been delivered at the end of a sword after the spilling of much blood. Today the fates of nations are decided by referendum…sort of.
You see, the question is extremely simple, and, in the words of at least one Canadian commentator who finds its precision refreshing after the convoluted tangle of Quebec’s sovereignty referendum questions, “crystal clear.” But is it really? After all, what does it mean to be an “independent country?” Does that mean passport sharing with the UK? Military association? An independent currency? EU membership? NATO membership? Will Scotland keep an allegiance to the crown? Will it become a commonwealth nation? There are no answers to these questions because none of those details have been worked out yet. For now, nationalist politicians are content to leave voters to fill in the blanks.
But these are not trivial questions to be asking. In fact, they go to the very heart of what is meant by “sovereignty” and “independence.” What’s more, Scotland, insofar as it is fast becoming the envy (and the role model) for independence movements around the globe, could potentially be setting precedents for future events in Catalonia or Veneto or elsewhere. In effect, they are setting down the definition of freedom for others to strive toward, so their answer to this string of questions might make the difference between true independence and what could very easily be just another form of dependence.
To see how this is the case, let’s examine some of these questions.
Military Matters
The question of what would happen to Scotland’s military facilities in the event of independence is not an idle one. HMNB Clyde is the Royal Navy service base in Scotland and is home to Britain’s nuclear weapon capability. This capability comes in the form of Trident missiles on the base’s nuclear armed submarines. Currently, Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond plans to remove all of the nuclear weapons from Scotland in the event of a “Yes” victory. This does not sit well with the usual chickenhawks in the corridors of power, who are hyperventilating over what such a “destabilizing” event would mean for the UK’s nuclear deterrant capabilities. Evidently we are meant to believe that if the submarines had to be moved to another base Putin and his band of marauding Russians would use the opportunity to launch a nuclear strike on England.
That specific concern plays into a larger question: would an independent Scotland be part of NATO? David Cameron used the opportunity of the recent NATO summit in Wales to announce that “a number of people” at the summit “raised their concerns about the referendum.” But could it maintain a spot at the NATO table? Salmond and the “Yes” campaign have made it clear they are interested in applying to NATO as a non-nuclear member. A spanner was recently thrown into the works, however, when NATO announced last week that the Scottish government would have to increase military spending by 500 milllion pounds (up from its proposed 2.5 billion pound budget) in order to be admitted into the alliance. Unnamed NATO officials have also been quoted in the media as noting that “you need every single NATO member to say Yes for you to join and even if one doesn’t, you’re stuck,” implying that a scorned UK could actually block an independent Scotland’s attempts to join the alliance.
Regardless of the back-and-forth wrangling over these details, though, the real underlying question is: should a free and independent Scotland seek to join NATO at all? Given its record in recent years in Yugoslavia, in Afghanistan, in Libya and in its continual push toward encirclement of Russia and China, it can no longer be doubted that NATO is one of the greatest threats to peace and stability on the planet at this point. Its mutual self-defence clause obligates member nations to become involved in the affairs of other nations. As we saw with last year, high-ranking Turkish officials have discussed staging a false flag event to blame on the Syrian government in order to go to war with the Assad government. In such an event, Turkey would almost certainly invoke the NATO mutual self-defence clause forcing Scotland to commit resources to a strike on Syria. A similar situation could take place if NATO-member Poland similarly feels itself “threatened” by Russia.
Why would a free and independent nation, finally un-yoking itself from centuries of subjugation to a foreign crown, immediately take on the yoke of a military alliance which would put its military at the beck-and-call of a proven pack of murderers and war criminals? It wouldn’t, of course, and the Scottish people should be worried that Salmond and the SNP have expressed their eagerness to join NATO as soon as they achieve “independence.”
The European Union
“An independent Scotland will be an enthusiastic member of the EU,” says Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond. You might want to read that sentence again to make sure you understood it correctly. To repeat: the leader of the Scottish independence battle wishes to maintain membership in the European Union, one of the most draconian and tyrannical governmental institutions in the world today.
This is the same European Union that made Ireland vote on the Lisbon Treaty a second time because it didn’t like the results of the first vote. The same EU that has spearheaded the disastrous Eurozone and the subsequent meltdown of the Eurozone economy. The same EU that is run by bureaucrats through an unelected an unaccountable European Commission. The same EU that ruled through its “Court of Justice” [sic] in 1999 that it is illegal to criticize the EU, a ruling that they actually used to formally reprimand UKIP MEP Nigel Farage in 2009 for calling the EU an unaccountable tyranny.
Why anyone claiming to be in favor of Scottish independence would be interested in immediately signing away their sovereignty is beyond my comprehension. But even for those “independence” advocates who are so inclined, it is doubtful they will find a cheerful ally in the European Union. The members of many of the EU nations will be concerned about the potential genie that Scotland is letting out of the bottle with this referendum. Spain will worry about Catalonia, Italy about Veneto, Belgium about Flanders.
Ironically, though, as long as these “independence” movements all follow the Scotland “Yes” campaign in clamoring for EU membership, it is the EU that will be the big winner of this trend. Brussels will have even more power over Europe when small, isolated local governments are gathering at the table. It is only by rejecting Brussels altogether that Scotland can have any hope of maintaining its sovereignty or achieving true independence.
Free Scotland and the Monarchy
Would a free and independent Scotland still recognize the Queen as its monarch? According to Alex Salmond, yes it would. In fact, he even went so far as to say that the Queen “will be proud” to be the monarch of an “independent” Scotland, and Scotland “would be proud to have her as monarch of this land.” The Queen, for her part, “is firmly of the view that this is a matter for the people of Scotland,” according to a royal spokesman.
The idea, presumably, is that Scotland would take its place in the Commonwealth alongside Canada, Australia and other former British colonies that have achieved independence from England but still recognize the Queen as head of state. In the case of Scotland, the bond between the crown and the country is more substantial; the 1603 “Union of the Crowns” united Scotland, England and Ireland under a single monarch. The Crown of Scotland remains distinct and separate, meaning that Queen Elizabeth is also formally “Queen of Scots,” a role that Salmond sees no problem with her maintaining after independence.
This is not such a popular position, however. Polls show that 46% of independence supporters also support the idea of Scotland breaking its ties to the crown. Yes Scotland campaign chair Dennis Canavan is on record saying that he is in favor of a referendum on the subject if the country wins its independence. An independent country would also have the ability to write the monarchy out of the picture politically by removing the Queen as “head of state” even if they did decide to keep some formal tie to the crown.
The anti-royalists face an uphill battle, however. The Queen spends a week each year at her official residence in Scotland, Holyrood Palace, and even more time at Balmoral Castle in Aberdeen; Prince Charles is the Duke of Rothesay; the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge are also the Earl and Countess of Strathearn. The royal roots in Scotland are deep, and a majority of the country is in favor of keeping the ties.
But why is this? What is “independence” if not the notion that a nation is sovereign; that is, not subject to any outside authority? Why would a free and independent Scotland want to bow down to any crown, rather than take their place amongst the nations of the world that recognize no special line of rulers who are granted their title, crown and ornate riches for no other reason than they were born into the right family?
If the independence movement wants to live up to their name, they will take Canavan’s suggestion, hold a referendum on the royal issue, and roundly reject the notion that any family has the right to rule over Scotland by virtue of their “blue blood.”
Scotland’s Own Currency?
By far the most important question facing an independent Scotland would be how to handle its monetary policy.
It may be surprising to anyone who has never shopped in Scotland, but the country already has its own currency, issued as banknotes by three of the country’s biggest banks: the Bank of Scotland, the Royal Bank of Scotland, and Clydesdale Bank. According to The Association of Commercial Banknote Issuers, these Scottish banknotes are “fully backed at all times by ring-fenced backing assets partly held in Bank of England notes and UK coin and partly as balances on accounts maintained by the issuing banks at the Bank of England.” Interestingly, some of this issuance is backed somewhere in the bowels of the Bank of England’s vaults by special 1 million pound notes called “Giants” and 100 million pound notes known as “Titans.”
But as viewers of “Century of Enslavement: The History of the Federal Reserve” will know, the paper money in circulation in the US only makes up a tiny sliver of the total money supply, and similarly in Scotland these Scottish banknotes only make up a fraction of the money supply there. Most of the money in Scotland (like almost every other country) is credit created by the private banks as accounting entries in their ledgers when customers took out loans.
But what would happen in the event of a “Yes” vote? Would the Scottish pound continue to be backed by Bank of England notes? Would it continue to trade at par with the English pound? Would the Bank of England continue to act as a lender of last resort and set monetary policy for Scotland? It is by no means clear, and depends on whether “independence” involves: Scotland entering into a formal currency union with the UK; Scotland continuing to use the sterling as its unit of account; Scotland creating its own, completely separate currency; or Scotland adopting the Euro.
In order to enter into a currency union with the UK, Scotland would have to negotiate an agreement with the Bank of England to set the terms of that relationship. Perhaps the Bank of England would remain Scotland’s central bank, or set monetary policy, or act as the lender of last resort. If so, there would be very little change to the status quo, although it would likely mean that the cost of borrowing for the newly-independent Scottish government would go up, depending on the terms it could reach with the BoE.
If Scotland adopted the Euro, it would need to set up its own central bank. As Ollie Rehn, the former EU commissioner for monetary union, noted earlier this month, any attempt to join the Eurozone would require “a monetary authority of its own” which he referred to as one of the “necessary instruments of the Economic and Monetary Union.” This central bank would presumably work something like the Bank of England does today; as a nominally “nationalized” bank that sets interest rates and purchases treasuries.
If an independent Scotland went the route of using the sterling without a formal agreement with the Bank of England, it could get by without a central bank. As many observers have noted, Hong Kong similarly relies on three private banks for the issuance of its banknotes and it does not have a central bank. Instead the Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintains the Hong Kong Dollar’s peg to the US Dollar by selling or buying US dollars as needed to balance supply and demand of the local currency. Similarly, a Scottish Monetary Authority could maintain a peg to the pound sterling by buying and selling Bank of England notes, all without the need for a central bank.
Perhaps the most exciting prospect of all, however, is for Scotland to become an example of some of the truly revolutionary (but historically proven) methods of securing national credit. The Scottish treasury could issue credit instruments directly. The inflationary pressures of this issuance could be controlled by offering a discount for use of these instruments in the payment of taxes. When the issuance is returned to the Exchequer the debt is cancelled out and extinguished or recirculated as required. As Chris Cook lays in a convincing article for Pieria, “Credit Scotland,” such a system could completely eliminate the need for banks to act as the middlemen of credit in the economy. As Cook argues, this would not only be possible, but has already been attempted in the past; in Alberta in the 1930s, for example.
Clearly, the “problem” of how an independent Scotland would secure its national credit presents a very serious challenge to the potential independence of the nation itself. A free Scotland could opt to immediately put itself back in the debt chains of the bankers-either by negotiating a deal with the Bank of England or the European Central Bank or creating its own system of central bank while keeping the currency-as-debt model-or it can truly strive to achieve “independence” in the deeper sense of the word, by throwing off the bankers’ debt chains and finding an alternative system.
Conclusion
Of course now that the polls are showing that the momentum is on the “Yes” side of the ledger, the powers that shouldn’t be are pushing every panic button they can find on their bought-and-paid for media wurlitzer. According to the propaganda pushers, a “Yes” vote for independence would mean: a possible Russian invasion (Business Insider), the abandonment of the country by the nation’s biggest banks (NY Times), higher prices for consumer goods (Herald Scotland), higher roaming charges for cell phone use in the rest of the UK (Sky News), soaring mortgage costs (Financial Times), a deep recession (The Daily Mail) and a litany of other doom-and-gloom scenarios. If the “Yes” momentum continues watch for these same media mouthpieces to bring out even more bombastic claims: the cancellation of Christmas! A rise in dental cavities! The opening of an interdimensional portal and releasing of the kraken!
No, the hyperventilation of the mockingbird media can be safely dismissed for what it is: transparent fearmongering. But there are serious pitfalls that the independence movement might sleepwalk into if they do not think through their actions carefully. After all, “independence” and “freedom” are not just words on paper; they are lived experiences of free and independent people. If that freedom and independence is not expressed – by the rejection of royal families and regional governments and banking oligarchies and military alliances – then they do not really exist. In a very real sense, even if Scotland does vote “Yes” this coming week, that will be only the first step in their journey toward independence.
And there is an added burden on the Scottish people. They are not just acting for themselves, but setting an example that will doubtless be aped by independence movements around the world.
Choose your actions carefully, Scotland. The world is watching.
corbettreport.com
September 17, 2014
This article originally appeared in The Corbett Report Subscriber newsletter on September 13, 2014. To subscribe to the newsletter and become a member of The Corbett Report website, please sign up for a monthly or annual membership here.
This week the Scots will go to the polls to answer a deceptively simple question:
“Should Scotland be an independent country?”
The question’s simplicity belies the enormity of what is being asked. In centuries past, such a sovereignty proclamation would only have been delivered at the end of a sword after the spilling of much blood. Today the fates of nations are decided by referendum…sort of.
You see, the question is extremely simple, and, in the words of at least one Canadian commentator who finds its precision refreshing after the convoluted tangle of Quebec’s sovereignty referendum questions, “crystal clear.” But is it really? After all, what does it mean to be an “independent country?” Does that mean passport sharing with the UK? Military association? An independent currency? EU membership? NATO membership? Will Scotland keep an allegiance to the crown? Will it become a commonwealth nation? There are no answers to these questions because none of those details have been worked out yet. For now, nationalist politicians are content to leave voters to fill in the blanks.
But these are not trivial questions to be asking. In fact, they go to the very heart of what is meant by “sovereignty” and “independence.” What’s more, Scotland, insofar as it is fast becoming the envy (and the role model) for independence movements around the globe, could potentially be setting precedents for future events in Catalonia or Veneto or elsewhere. In effect, they are setting down the definition of freedom for others to strive toward, so their answer to this string of questions might make the difference between true independence and what could very easily be just another form of dependence.
To see how this is the case, let’s examine some of these questions.
Military Matters
The question of what would happen to Scotland’s military facilities in the event of independence is not an idle one. HMNB Clyde is the Royal Navy service base in Scotland and is home to Britain’s nuclear weapon capability. This capability comes in the form of Trident missiles on the base’s nuclear armed submarines. Currently, Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond plans to remove all of the nuclear weapons from Scotland in the event of a “Yes” victory. This does not sit well with the usual chickenhawks in the corridors of power, who are hyperventilating over what such a “destabilizing” event would mean for the UK’s nuclear deterrant capabilities. Evidently we are meant to believe that if the submarines had to be moved to another base Putin and his band of marauding Russians would use the opportunity to launch a nuclear strike on England.That specific concern plays into a larger question: would an independent Scotland be part of NATO? David Cameron used the opportunity of the recent NATO summit in Wales to announce that “a number of people” at the summit “raised their concerns about the referendum.” But could it maintain a spot at the NATO table? Salmond and the “Yes” campaign have made it clear they are interested in applying to NATO as a non-nuclear member. A spanner was recently thrown into the works, however, when NATO announced last week that the Scottish government would have to increase military spending by 500 milllion pounds (up from its proposed 2.5 billion pound budget) in order to be admitted into the alliance. Unnamed NATO officials have also been quoted in the media as noting that “you need every single NATO member to say Yes for you to join and even if one doesn’t, you’re stuck,” implying that a scorned UK could actually block an independent Scotland’s attempts to join the alliance.
Regardless of the back-and-forth wrangling over these details, though, the real underlying question is: should a free and independent Scotland seek to join NATO at all? Given its record in recent years in Yugoslavia, in Afghanistan, in Libya and in its continual push toward encirclement of Russia and China, it can no longer be doubted that NATO is one of the greatest threats to peace and stability on the planet at this point. Its mutual self-defence clause obligates member nations to become involved in the affairs of other nations. As we saw with last year, high-ranking Turkish officials have discussed staging a false flag event to blame on the Syrian government in order to go to war with the Assad government. In such an event, Turkey would almost certainly invoke the NATO mutual self-defence clause forcing Scotland to commit resources to a strike on Syria. A similar situation could take place if NATO-member Poland similarly feels itself “threatened” by Russia.
Why would a free and independent nation, finally un-yoking itself from centuries of subjugation to a foreign crown, immediately take on the yoke of a military alliance which would put its military at the beck-and-call of a proven pack of murderers and war criminals? It wouldn’t, of course, and the Scottish people should be worried that Salmond and the SNP have expressed their eagerness to join NATO as soon as they achieve “independence.”
The European Union
“An independent Scotland will be an enthusiastic member of the EU,” says Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond. You might want to read that sentence again to make sure you understood it correctly. To repeat: the leader of the Scottish independence battle wishes to maintain membership in the European Union, one of the most draconian and tyrannical governmental institutions in the world today.This is the same European Union that made Ireland vote on the Lisbon Treaty a second time because it didn’t like the results of the first vote. The same EU that has spearheaded the disastrous Eurozone and the subsequent meltdown of the Eurozone economy. The same EU that is run by bureaucrats through an unelected an unaccountable European Commission. The same EU that ruled through its “Court of Justice” [sic] in 1999 that it is illegal to criticize the EU, a ruling that they actually used to formally reprimand UKIP MEP Nigel Farage in 2009 for calling the EU an unaccountable tyranny.
Why anyone claiming to be in favor of Scottish independence would be interested in immediately signing away their sovereignty is beyond my comprehension. But even for those “independence” advocates who are so inclined, it is doubtful they will find a cheerful ally in the European Union. The members of many of the EU nations will be concerned about the potential genie that Scotland is letting out of the bottle with this referendum. Spain will worry about Catalonia, Italy about Veneto, Belgium about Flanders.
Ironically, though, as long as these “independence” movements all follow the Scotland “Yes” campaign in clamoring for EU membership, it is the EU that will be the big winner of this trend. Brussels will have even more power over Europe when small, isolated local governments are gathering at the table. It is only by rejecting Brussels altogether that Scotland can have any hope of maintaining its sovereignty or achieving true independence.
Free Scotland and the Monarchy
Would a free and independent Scotland still recognize the Queen as its monarch? According to Alex Salmond, yes it would. In fact, he even went so far as to say that the Queen “will be proud” to be the monarch of an “independent” Scotland, and Scotland “would be proud to have her as monarch of this land.” The Queen, for her part, “is firmly of the view that this is a matter for the people of Scotland,” according to a royal spokesman.The idea, presumably, is that Scotland would take its place in the Commonwealth alongside Canada, Australia and other former British colonies that have achieved independence from England but still recognize the Queen as head of state. In the case of Scotland, the bond between the crown and the country is more substantial; the 1603 “Union of the Crowns” united Scotland, England and Ireland under a single monarch. The Crown of Scotland remains distinct and separate, meaning that Queen Elizabeth is also formally “Queen of Scots,” a role that Salmond sees no problem with her maintaining after independence.
This is not such a popular position, however. Polls show that 46% of independence supporters also support the idea of Scotland breaking its ties to the crown. Yes Scotland campaign chair Dennis Canavan is on record saying that he is in favor of a referendum on the subject if the country wins its independence. An independent country would also have the ability to write the monarchy out of the picture politically by removing the Queen as “head of state” even if they did decide to keep some formal tie to the crown.
The anti-royalists face an uphill battle, however. The Queen spends a week each year at her official residence in Scotland, Holyrood Palace, and even more time at Balmoral Castle in Aberdeen; Prince Charles is the Duke of Rothesay; the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge are also the Earl and Countess of Strathearn. The royal roots in Scotland are deep, and a majority of the country is in favor of keeping the ties.
But why is this? What is “independence” if not the notion that a nation is sovereign; that is, not subject to any outside authority? Why would a free and independent Scotland want to bow down to any crown, rather than take their place amongst the nations of the world that recognize no special line of rulers who are granted their title, crown and ornate riches for no other reason than they were born into the right family?
If the independence movement wants to live up to their name, they will take Canavan’s suggestion, hold a referendum on the royal issue, and roundly reject the notion that any family has the right to rule over Scotland by virtue of their “blue blood.”
Scotland’s Own Currency?
By far the most important question facing an independent Scotland would be how to handle its monetary policy.It may be surprising to anyone who has never shopped in Scotland, but the country already has its own currency, issued as banknotes by three of the country’s biggest banks: the Bank of Scotland, the Royal Bank of Scotland, and Clydesdale Bank. According to The Association of Commercial Banknote Issuers, these Scottish banknotes are “fully backed at all times by ring-fenced backing assets partly held in Bank of England notes and UK coin and partly as balances on accounts maintained by the issuing banks at the Bank of England.” Interestingly, some of this issuance is backed somewhere in the bowels of the Bank of England’s vaults by special 1 million pound notes called “Giants” and 100 million pound notes known as “Titans.”
But as viewers of “Century of Enslavement: The History of the Federal Reserve” will know, the paper money in circulation in the US only makes up a tiny sliver of the total money supply, and similarly in Scotland these Scottish banknotes only make up a fraction of the money supply there. Most of the money in Scotland (like almost every other country) is credit created by the private banks as accounting entries in their ledgers when customers took out loans.
But what would happen in the event of a “Yes” vote? Would the Scottish pound continue to be backed by Bank of England notes? Would it continue to trade at par with the English pound? Would the Bank of England continue to act as a lender of last resort and set monetary policy for Scotland? It is by no means clear, and depends on whether “independence” involves: Scotland entering into a formal currency union with the UK; Scotland continuing to use the sterling as its unit of account; Scotland creating its own, completely separate currency; or Scotland adopting the Euro.
In order to enter into a currency union with the UK, Scotland would have to negotiate an agreement with the Bank of England to set the terms of that relationship. Perhaps the Bank of England would remain Scotland’s central bank, or set monetary policy, or act as the lender of last resort. If so, there would be very little change to the status quo, although it would likely mean that the cost of borrowing for the newly-independent Scottish government would go up, depending on the terms it could reach with the BoE.
If Scotland adopted the Euro, it would need to set up its own central bank. As Ollie Rehn, the former EU commissioner for monetary union, noted earlier this month, any attempt to join the Eurozone would require “a monetary authority of its own” which he referred to as one of the “necessary instruments of the Economic and Monetary Union.” This central bank would presumably work something like the Bank of England does today; as a nominally “nationalized” bank that sets interest rates and purchases treasuries.
If an independent Scotland went the route of using the sterling without a formal agreement with the Bank of England, it could get by without a central bank. As many observers have noted, Hong Kong similarly relies on three private banks for the issuance of its banknotes and it does not have a central bank. Instead the Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintains the Hong Kong Dollar’s peg to the US Dollar by selling or buying US dollars as needed to balance supply and demand of the local currency. Similarly, a Scottish Monetary Authority could maintain a peg to the pound sterling by buying and selling Bank of England notes, all without the need for a central bank.
Perhaps the most exciting prospect of all, however, is for Scotland to become an example of some of the truly revolutionary (but historically proven) methods of securing national credit. The Scottish treasury could issue credit instruments directly. The inflationary pressures of this issuance could be controlled by offering a discount for use of these instruments in the payment of taxes. When the issuance is returned to the Exchequer the debt is cancelled out and extinguished or recirculated as required. As Chris Cook lays in a convincing article for Pieria, “Credit Scotland,” such a system could completely eliminate the need for banks to act as the middlemen of credit in the economy. As Cook argues, this would not only be possible, but has already been attempted in the past; in Alberta in the 1930s, for example.
Clearly, the “problem” of how an independent Scotland would secure its national credit presents a very serious challenge to the potential independence of the nation itself. A free Scotland could opt to immediately put itself back in the debt chains of the bankers-either by negotiating a deal with the Bank of England or the European Central Bank or creating its own system of central bank while keeping the currency-as-debt model-or it can truly strive to achieve “independence” in the deeper sense of the word, by throwing off the bankers’ debt chains and finding an alternative system.
Conclusion
Of course now that the polls are showing that the momentum is on the “Yes” side of the ledger, the powers that shouldn’t be are pushing every panic button they can find on their bought-and-paid for media wurlitzer. According to the propaganda pushers, a “Yes” vote for independence would mean: a possible Russian invasion (Business Insider), the abandonment of the country by the nation’s biggest banks (NY Times), higher prices for consumer goods (Herald Scotland), higher roaming charges for cell phone use in the rest of the UK (Sky News), soaring mortgage costs (Financial Times), a deep recession (The Daily Mail) and a litany of other doom-and-gloom scenarios. If the “Yes” momentum continues watch for these same media mouthpieces to bring out even more bombastic claims: the cancellation of Christmas! A rise in dental cavities! The opening of an interdimensional portal and releasing of the kraken!No, the hyperventilation of the mockingbird media can be safely dismissed for what it is: transparent fearmongering. But there are serious pitfalls that the independence movement might sleepwalk into if they do not think through their actions carefully. After all, “independence” and “freedom” are not just words on paper; they are lived experiences of free and independent people. If that freedom and independence is not expressed – by the rejection of royal families and regional governments and banking oligarchies and military alliances – then they do not really exist. In a very real sense, even if Scotland does vote “Yes” this coming week, that will be only the first step in their journey toward independence.
And there is an added burden on the Scottish people. They are not just acting for themselves, but setting an example that will doubtless be aped by independence movements around the world.
Choose your actions carefully, Scotland. The world is watching.
Mideast complexities confound US coalition effort
By Dan Perry, AP, Sep 15, 2014
The Middle East has confounded outsiders for years, so it is no surprise that another U.S.-led project with a straightforward goal—destroying a marauding organization of extremists—is bumping up against age-old rivalries and a nod-and-a-wink-style political culture.
U.S. secretary of state John Kerry has received backing for the principle of reversing the territorial gains of the Islamic State group in Iraq. But getting concrete assistance is another matter, and there is a whiff of lip service about the proceedings.
Much of the problem lies in the Muslim region’s Sunni-Shiite divide, which outsiders tend to underestimate again and again—only to see it emerging as the dominant factor once more. Here’s a look at the landscape:
SUNNIS AREN’T INCLINED TO HELP SHIITE REGIMES. Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has come out against the Islamic State group and its acts of barbarism in Syria and Iraq. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi clearly reviles political Islam and its militant extension, the jihadis who are tearing up Libya, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt’s own Sinai Peninsula. Yet they still have reservations about making a direct move that would be seen as aligning with the Shiite leaderships in Baghdad and Damascus. The issue pops up everywhere: secular Sunnis in northern Iraq actually felt so alienated from the Shiite government of Nouri al-Maliki and its anti-Sunni machinations that—at least for a time earlier this year—they genuinely supported the Islamic State group because it was Sunni. Iran factors into this equation as well: although its Persian majority is not ethnically Arab, it is a Shiite nation, and as such supports the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad. Several days of U.S. lobbying, and a new leader in Iraq more amenable to reaching out to non-Shiites, will not change this. Nor will the U.S. sway Turkey, another Sunni power that has not been pleased with the Islamic State group but is still eager to see the overthrow of its enemy, Syrian President Bashar Assad. The issue has no fix; what is needed is finesse.
U.S. CREDIBILITY HAS WANED. U.S. credibility has suffered in the Middle East since Sept. 11, 2001, which doesn’t help the recruitment effort. The arguments for invading Iraq have been discredited, and the Iraqi and Afghan campaigns—which went on years beyond the original plan—are not looking successful. Smaller fights against terrorists in Pakistan and Yemen seem destined to continue without end. The Obama administration’s swift abandonment of Hosni Mubarak in 2011 shocked allies in the region, most of whom were hardly more democratic than the ousted Egyptian leader. U.S. attempts to work with Islamists, during the brief rule of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, left many concluding that American leadership was naive and its diplomacy inept. In an echo of colonial-era animosities, many in the region see Western leaders who are stirred to action by the beheading of a few Westerners—but not by hundreds of thousands of Arab deaths. Washington also has proven unable to influence its close ally Israel to slow down Jewish settlement construction in the West Bank—one of the few things that can unite virtually all Sunnis and Shiites in angry opposition.
POLITICAL ISLAM IS UNPOPULAR WITH THE GOVERNMENTS. Two years ago, it looked like political Islam was not only ascendant but destined to dominate. The Muslim Brotherhood and its allies seemed to have an automatic majority in Egypt, did very well in elections in Libya, Tunisia, Morocco and elsewhere, and were becoming dominant even in the Syrian opposition. But the tables have turned dramatically, largely because of the success of the Egyptian military in conflating the Muslim Brotherhood with jihadi radicalism, and by the horrifying actions of Islamic extremists who have harmed the Islamist project as a whole. Today, most governments in the region are working to undermine political Islam, leaving mainly Qatar, which supports the Brotherhood financially and has granted refuge to many of the group’s leaders from Egypt as well as Hamas leader Khaled Mashal. Yet even Qatar, under pressure from other Gulf nations, appears to be backtracking, announcing this weekend that several key Brotherhood leaders would be leaving. All this aids the coalition-building effort and helps explain why Kerry is not shown the door.
DEMOCRACY IS NOT SO POPULAR, EITHER. A key slice of the regional elite—educated and globalized, but not starry-eyed—considers the Western obsession with free elections to be naive and destructive. The argument says that societies with high illiteracy, little democratic history or infrastructure, and tribal culture shot through with radical Islamic influences are simply not ready for the responsibility of majority rule. It is better, they reason, to enable a type of managed democracy—like in Egypt where the previously elected Islamist party has been outlawed and decapitated—or a lengthy transition or the kind that is offered by King Abdullah in Jordan. For the United States’ current coalition project, this means getting into bed with less-than-democratic countries that, after the frustrations of the Arab Spring, do not welcome meddling in their political systems.
THE LEAST BAD OPTION. The jihadis are aiming for a form of utopia, from their perspective. But most people in the Middle East have grown accustomed to compromise—to accepting and even embracing the least bad option. In this way, secular Palestinians accept Hamas, preferring Islamist oppression to the corruption of secular rulers like Yasser Arafat. Many Libyans are surely nostalgic for their stability and reasonable prosperity under Moammar Gadhafi. There was no political freedom and even the hint of insanity at the top. But it could be seen as less bad than the current situation with two competing governments, neither in control, violent Islamist militias holding Tripoli and Benghazi, and foreign workers fleeing for their lives. Many Syrians are concluding that the Assad regime may be the least bad option as well, if the likely replacement is a coalition of jihadis. Western leaders fret that hitting the Islamic State group may help Assad, but many in the region find that a palatable outcome, even if they won’t say so publicly. Others hope for an optimal solution: Hit the jihadis, and also finally support in earnest the rapidly disintegrating Free Syrian Army—the so-called “moderate” Syrian rebels who have almost been forgotten as so much of the region has gone up in flames.
The Middle East has confounded outsiders for years, so it is no surprise that another U.S.-led project with a straightforward goal—destroying a marauding organization of extremists—is bumping up against age-old rivalries and a nod-and-a-wink-style political culture.
U.S. secretary of state John Kerry has received backing for the principle of reversing the territorial gains of the Islamic State group in Iraq. But getting concrete assistance is another matter, and there is a whiff of lip service about the proceedings.
Much of the problem lies in the Muslim region’s Sunni-Shiite divide, which outsiders tend to underestimate again and again—only to see it emerging as the dominant factor once more. Here’s a look at the landscape:
SUNNIS AREN’T INCLINED TO HELP SHIITE REGIMES. Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has come out against the Islamic State group and its acts of barbarism in Syria and Iraq. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi clearly reviles political Islam and its militant extension, the jihadis who are tearing up Libya, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt’s own Sinai Peninsula. Yet they still have reservations about making a direct move that would be seen as aligning with the Shiite leaderships in Baghdad and Damascus. The issue pops up everywhere: secular Sunnis in northern Iraq actually felt so alienated from the Shiite government of Nouri al-Maliki and its anti-Sunni machinations that—at least for a time earlier this year—they genuinely supported the Islamic State group because it was Sunni. Iran factors into this equation as well: although its Persian majority is not ethnically Arab, it is a Shiite nation, and as such supports the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad. Several days of U.S. lobbying, and a new leader in Iraq more amenable to reaching out to non-Shiites, will not change this. Nor will the U.S. sway Turkey, another Sunni power that has not been pleased with the Islamic State group but is still eager to see the overthrow of its enemy, Syrian President Bashar Assad. The issue has no fix; what is needed is finesse.
U.S. CREDIBILITY HAS WANED. U.S. credibility has suffered in the Middle East since Sept. 11, 2001, which doesn’t help the recruitment effort. The arguments for invading Iraq have been discredited, and the Iraqi and Afghan campaigns—which went on years beyond the original plan—are not looking successful. Smaller fights against terrorists in Pakistan and Yemen seem destined to continue without end. The Obama administration’s swift abandonment of Hosni Mubarak in 2011 shocked allies in the region, most of whom were hardly more democratic than the ousted Egyptian leader. U.S. attempts to work with Islamists, during the brief rule of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, left many concluding that American leadership was naive and its diplomacy inept. In an echo of colonial-era animosities, many in the region see Western leaders who are stirred to action by the beheading of a few Westerners—but not by hundreds of thousands of Arab deaths. Washington also has proven unable to influence its close ally Israel to slow down Jewish settlement construction in the West Bank—one of the few things that can unite virtually all Sunnis and Shiites in angry opposition.
POLITICAL ISLAM IS UNPOPULAR WITH THE GOVERNMENTS. Two years ago, it looked like political Islam was not only ascendant but destined to dominate. The Muslim Brotherhood and its allies seemed to have an automatic majority in Egypt, did very well in elections in Libya, Tunisia, Morocco and elsewhere, and were becoming dominant even in the Syrian opposition. But the tables have turned dramatically, largely because of the success of the Egyptian military in conflating the Muslim Brotherhood with jihadi radicalism, and by the horrifying actions of Islamic extremists who have harmed the Islamist project as a whole. Today, most governments in the region are working to undermine political Islam, leaving mainly Qatar, which supports the Brotherhood financially and has granted refuge to many of the group’s leaders from Egypt as well as Hamas leader Khaled Mashal. Yet even Qatar, under pressure from other Gulf nations, appears to be backtracking, announcing this weekend that several key Brotherhood leaders would be leaving. All this aids the coalition-building effort and helps explain why Kerry is not shown the door.
DEMOCRACY IS NOT SO POPULAR, EITHER. A key slice of the regional elite—educated and globalized, but not starry-eyed—considers the Western obsession with free elections to be naive and destructive. The argument says that societies with high illiteracy, little democratic history or infrastructure, and tribal culture shot through with radical Islamic influences are simply not ready for the responsibility of majority rule. It is better, they reason, to enable a type of managed democracy—like in Egypt where the previously elected Islamist party has been outlawed and decapitated—or a lengthy transition or the kind that is offered by King Abdullah in Jordan. For the United States’ current coalition project, this means getting into bed with less-than-democratic countries that, after the frustrations of the Arab Spring, do not welcome meddling in their political systems.
THE LEAST BAD OPTION. The jihadis are aiming for a form of utopia, from their perspective. But most people in the Middle East have grown accustomed to compromise—to accepting and even embracing the least bad option. In this way, secular Palestinians accept Hamas, preferring Islamist oppression to the corruption of secular rulers like Yasser Arafat. Many Libyans are surely nostalgic for their stability and reasonable prosperity under Moammar Gadhafi. There was no political freedom and even the hint of insanity at the top. But it could be seen as less bad than the current situation with two competing governments, neither in control, violent Islamist militias holding Tripoli and Benghazi, and foreign workers fleeing for their lives. Many Syrians are concluding that the Assad regime may be the least bad option as well, if the likely replacement is a coalition of jihadis. Western leaders fret that hitting the Islamic State group may help Assad, but many in the region find that a palatable outcome, even if they won’t say so publicly. Others hope for an optimal solution: Hit the jihadis, and also finally support in earnest the rapidly disintegrating Free Syrian Army—the so-called “moderate” Syrian rebels who have almost been forgotten as so much of the region has gone up in flames.
Scotland bets on North Sea oil, even as the wells start to run dry
By Griff Witte, Washington Post, September 14, 2014
ABERDEEN, Scotland—The discovery of oil deep beneath the waters of the North Sea has made this ancient port city an energy boom town, with some of the highest wages and lowest unemployment rates anywhere in Europe.
Now, leaders of the campaign to break from Britain in a Thursday referendum are counting on the spoils of “Scotland’s oil” to help spread prosperity across their newly independent nation, funding schools, health care and social welfare programs. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond has promised an oil fund, modeled on Norway’s, to ensure that the country’s wealth is broadly shared.
But in the final days before the vote, that vision of a progressive and egalitarian society built on a foundation of black goo is coming up against the hard reality of energy economics: After four decades of relentless pumping, the North Sea reserves are long past their peak and could be headed for a steep decline.
Diminishing production means that even if Scotland breaks free from the rest of Britain with Thursday’s vote, it may be too late to reap most of the gains. And instead of coming out ahead, the fledgling nation could have to contend with a gusher of red ink.
“The early to mid-1980s was when Scotland would have done extremely well if it had had all the oil,” said John McLaren, an energy economist with Fiscal Affairs Scotland. “But there’s no prospect of it getting to anything like what it was in the past.”
Doubts about the North Sea are just one piece of a broader constellation of economic concerns that has shaped the independence campaign in its final days. While Scotland’s 4 million voters will weigh many factors when they decide whether to break up their three-century-old union, much of the debate comes down to money.
And on that issue, much remains unknown. Even the basic question of which currency will fill Scots’ pockets remains hotly debated, with Scottish leaders saying they will continue to use the pound, but British officials insisting that they won’t share.
The uncertainty has prompted an outcry in recent days from big business. Several large companies—including the Royal Bank of Scotland—have said that they will move their headquarters south of the border if Scotland breaks away. Retailers have warned Scottish voters that a “yes” vote will force them to raise prices. Oil company executives have maintained they want to keep drilling amid the stability of Britain.
But none of that seems to have swayed large numbers of voters: Polls show that the margin in the referendum remains razor thin, just as it was before the blitz of corporate dismay.
To independence advocates, the expressions of anxiety are all part of a carefully orchestrated campaign by the British elite to scare Scots away from going it alone.
Few doubt that Scotland could make it as an independent country, with banking, tourism and whiskey all contributing to a diversified economy that would lean substantially on oil but not be completely reliant on it. Independence advocates point to statistics showing that an independent Scotland would rank as the 14th-wealthiest country in the world per capita, higher than Britain, with oil and gas accounting for about 15 percent of economic output.
But if Scotland is going to come out ahead from a decision to leave the rest of Britain behind, oil will be key. And it will need either greater production or higher oil prices just to make up for the money lost because of the greater relative cost of government services to the geographically dispersed population of Scotland.
While campaigning door-to-door in Aberdeen on Friday, Salmond ridiculed suggestions that North Sea oil may be running low and asserted that there is enough to help fill government coffers for “many, many decades to come.”
Britain, he said, had consistently squandered revenue from oil taxes; Scotland, he said, would bank it to ensure that future generations of Scots benefit, much like the similarly sized country across the water that has grown rich off oil.
“If we want an example of how to manage a great natural resource, we just have to glance across the sea to our friends in Norway,” said Salmond, who worked as an oil economist before entering politics.
But Norway, which has a trillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund that is the envy of Europe, has had a crucial 20-year head start.
Most of Scotland’s recoverable North Sea oil is gone, with 40 billion barrels pumped since the first discovery in 1970 and production in decline since 1999.
Estimates of how much is left vary but tend not to exceed 24 billion barrels. Ian Wood, a billionaire North Sea pioneer, recently said that 16 billion barrels is more likely and that production could dramatically decline within as little as 15 years.
“Young voters right now should just be aware by the time they are middle-aged, they’ll begin to see a real rundown not just in the level of oil and gas being produced but the ongoing implications of that—the jobs, economic prosperity, public services,” Wood told EnergyVoice.com.
That knowledge may help explain why in this affluent, granite-hewn city, where nearly everyone seems to have a job in the petroleum business, support for independence tends to lag. Many voters in Aberdeen say they are all too aware that the oil is fleeting.
“Aberdeen is a bubble,” said Robbie Tennent, a 24-year-old engineer who specializes in maintaining the pumping platforms that rise hundreds of miles offshore. “It’s great to have oil. It keeps me employed. But I don’t think you can base your economy around it.”
And yet, there’s always the prospect of new discoveries. Alexander Kemp, a professor of oil economics at the University of Aberdeen, said that dozens of underexplored fields off the Scottish coast that aren’t commercially viable now may become so if the price of oil rises and the cost of extraction falls.
Many residents, meanwhile, have grown inured to warnings of vanishing oil. Kenneth Anderson moved to a booming Aberdeen in 1977 to work in construction and can remember talk about an imminent bust. “Even then we were told the oil was running out,” he said.
Nearly four decades later, he owns a thriving construction company that builds state-of-the-art facilities for the energy firms that continue to congregate around Aberdeen’s nearly millennium-old harbor.
But the city could have done even better if it had been governed from Edinburgh, not London, Anderson said. And he worries that unless Scotland takes control of its destiny, his three kids won’t have the same prospects that he did.
ABERDEEN, Scotland—The discovery of oil deep beneath the waters of the North Sea has made this ancient port city an energy boom town, with some of the highest wages and lowest unemployment rates anywhere in Europe.
Now, leaders of the campaign to break from Britain in a Thursday referendum are counting on the spoils of “Scotland’s oil” to help spread prosperity across their newly independent nation, funding schools, health care and social welfare programs. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond has promised an oil fund, modeled on Norway’s, to ensure that the country’s wealth is broadly shared.
But in the final days before the vote, that vision of a progressive and egalitarian society built on a foundation of black goo is coming up against the hard reality of energy economics: After four decades of relentless pumping, the North Sea reserves are long past their peak and could be headed for a steep decline.
Diminishing production means that even if Scotland breaks free from the rest of Britain with Thursday’s vote, it may be too late to reap most of the gains. And instead of coming out ahead, the fledgling nation could have to contend with a gusher of red ink.
“The early to mid-1980s was when Scotland would have done extremely well if it had had all the oil,” said John McLaren, an energy economist with Fiscal Affairs Scotland. “But there’s no prospect of it getting to anything like what it was in the past.”
Doubts about the North Sea are just one piece of a broader constellation of economic concerns that has shaped the independence campaign in its final days. While Scotland’s 4 million voters will weigh many factors when they decide whether to break up their three-century-old union, much of the debate comes down to money.
And on that issue, much remains unknown. Even the basic question of which currency will fill Scots’ pockets remains hotly debated, with Scottish leaders saying they will continue to use the pound, but British officials insisting that they won’t share.
The uncertainty has prompted an outcry in recent days from big business. Several large companies—including the Royal Bank of Scotland—have said that they will move their headquarters south of the border if Scotland breaks away. Retailers have warned Scottish voters that a “yes” vote will force them to raise prices. Oil company executives have maintained they want to keep drilling amid the stability of Britain.
But none of that seems to have swayed large numbers of voters: Polls show that the margin in the referendum remains razor thin, just as it was before the blitz of corporate dismay.
To independence advocates, the expressions of anxiety are all part of a carefully orchestrated campaign by the British elite to scare Scots away from going it alone.
Few doubt that Scotland could make it as an independent country, with banking, tourism and whiskey all contributing to a diversified economy that would lean substantially on oil but not be completely reliant on it. Independence advocates point to statistics showing that an independent Scotland would rank as the 14th-wealthiest country in the world per capita, higher than Britain, with oil and gas accounting for about 15 percent of economic output.
But if Scotland is going to come out ahead from a decision to leave the rest of Britain behind, oil will be key. And it will need either greater production or higher oil prices just to make up for the money lost because of the greater relative cost of government services to the geographically dispersed population of Scotland.
While campaigning door-to-door in Aberdeen on Friday, Salmond ridiculed suggestions that North Sea oil may be running low and asserted that there is enough to help fill government coffers for “many, many decades to come.”
Britain, he said, had consistently squandered revenue from oil taxes; Scotland, he said, would bank it to ensure that future generations of Scots benefit, much like the similarly sized country across the water that has grown rich off oil.
“If we want an example of how to manage a great natural resource, we just have to glance across the sea to our friends in Norway,” said Salmond, who worked as an oil economist before entering politics.
But Norway, which has a trillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund that is the envy of Europe, has had a crucial 20-year head start.
Most of Scotland’s recoverable North Sea oil is gone, with 40 billion barrels pumped since the first discovery in 1970 and production in decline since 1999.
Estimates of how much is left vary but tend not to exceed 24 billion barrels. Ian Wood, a billionaire North Sea pioneer, recently said that 16 billion barrels is more likely and that production could dramatically decline within as little as 15 years.
“Young voters right now should just be aware by the time they are middle-aged, they’ll begin to see a real rundown not just in the level of oil and gas being produced but the ongoing implications of that—the jobs, economic prosperity, public services,” Wood told EnergyVoice.com.
That knowledge may help explain why in this affluent, granite-hewn city, where nearly everyone seems to have a job in the petroleum business, support for independence tends to lag. Many voters in Aberdeen say they are all too aware that the oil is fleeting.
“Aberdeen is a bubble,” said Robbie Tennent, a 24-year-old engineer who specializes in maintaining the pumping platforms that rise hundreds of miles offshore. “It’s great to have oil. It keeps me employed. But I don’t think you can base your economy around it.”
And yet, there’s always the prospect of new discoveries. Alexander Kemp, a professor of oil economics at the University of Aberdeen, said that dozens of underexplored fields off the Scottish coast that aren’t commercially viable now may become so if the price of oil rises and the cost of extraction falls.
Many residents, meanwhile, have grown inured to warnings of vanishing oil. Kenneth Anderson moved to a booming Aberdeen in 1977 to work in construction and can remember talk about an imminent bust. “Even then we were told the oil was running out,” he said.
Nearly four decades later, he owns a thriving construction company that builds state-of-the-art facilities for the energy firms that continue to congregate around Aberdeen’s nearly millennium-old harbor.
But the city could have done even better if it had been governed from Edinburgh, not London, Anderson said. And he worries that unless Scotland takes control of its destiny, his three kids won’t have the same prospects that he did.
