Does your faith need strengthening? Are you confused and wondering if Jesus Christ is really "The Way, the Truth, and the Life?" "Fight for Your Faith" is a blog filled with interesting and thought provoking articles to help you find the answers you are seeking. Jesus said, "Seek and ye shall find." In Jeremiah we read, "Ye shall seek Me, and find Me, when ye shall seek for Me with all your heart." These articles and videos will help you in your search for the Truth.

Friday, April 3, 2020

Adios à Angústia e Ansiedade!

Compilação

[Adios to Angst and Anxiety!]
A angústia é um profundo sentimento de ansiedade, pavor, insegurança ou apreensão. Angústia vem de uma palavra raiz indo-europeia que significa “inquietude, ansiedade ou raiva”. A angústia difere um pouco da verdadeira ansiedade, pois, enquanto a ansiedade é ativa, a angústia é passiva. Ansiedade é medo de um determinado evento, mas angústia é um sentimento de insatisfação subjacente sem causa específica.
Algumas ocasiões na vida produzem apreensão que, se não for tratada adequadamente, pode criar uma angústia. Mudanças geográficas, uma futura mudança de emprego ou a adolescência costumam ser épocas nas quais podemos sentir angústia. As decisões dos líderes nacionais podem provocar inquietação nos cidadãos durante tempos de guerra ou crises econômicas. Em vez de permitir que esses eventos criem angústia, a Bíblia nos convida a lançar toda a nossa preocupação sobre o Senhor, porque Ele cuida de nós.[1] Não somos repreendidos por nosso medo, mas exortados a escolhermos uma opção melhor do que a angústia. Filipenses 4:6–7[2] diz: “Não andem ansiosos por coisa alguma, mas em tudo, pela oração e súplicas, e com ação de graças, apresentem seus pedidos a Deus. E a paz de Deus, que excede todo o entendimento, guardará os seus corações e as suas mentes em Cristo Jesus.”
O livro dos Salmos nos dá muitos exemplos de situações que podem causar angústia, mas os salmistas continuaram escrevendo até encontrar uma solução. O Salmo 42, por exemplo, expressa o medo, a apreensão e a ansiedade que frequentemente sentimos, mas intercala esses clamores sinceros com esperança, como nos versículos 5 e 6[3]: “Por que você está assim tão triste, ó minha alma? Por que está assim tão perturbada dentro de mim? Ponha a sua esperança em Deus! Pois ainda o louvarei; ele é o meu Salvador e o meu Deus.”
Para os cidadãos do céu, a vida neste mundo quebrantado pode ser avassaladora. Nós não nos encaixamos aqui. Não gostamos nem concordamos com muito do que o mundo celebra, e esse sentimento de que “ainda não estamos em casa” pode criar angústia. Quando nos deixamos envolver emocionalmente em conflitos contínuos e em debates infrutíferos, podemos desenvolver angústia sem perceber o que é.[4]
Os cristãos que lutam com sentimentos de angústia devem pedir a Deus que desenvolva o fruto do Espírito, alegria, em suas vidas[5]; encontrar sua satisfação em Cristo[6]; e escolher o caminho da bem-aventurança[7]. Somos “mais do que vencedores por meio daquele que nos amou”[8]. Jesus prometeu nos dar Sua paz, dizendo: “Neste mundo vocês terão aflições; contudo, tenham ânimo! Eu venci o mundo.”[9],[10]
Podemos contar com o Senhor para suprir nossas necessidades, proteger-nos do mal, guiar-nos e manter nossa alma segura pela eternidade. Podemos não ser capazes de impedir que pensamentos ansiosos entrem em nossas mentes, mas podemos praticar como reagir da maneira certa.[11]
Em 1 Pedro 5: 7[12], somos instruídos “lancem sobre ele toda a sua ansiedade, porque ele tem cuidado de vocês”. Deus não quer que carreguemos o peso de problemas e fardos. Neste versículo, Deus está nos dizendo para Lhe entregarmos todas as nossas preocupações. Por que Deus quer carregar todos os nossos problemas? A Bíblia diz que é porque Ele cuida de nós. Deus Se importa com tudo o que nos acontece. Nenhuma preocupação é muito grande ou muito pequena para Sua atenção.
É claro que, para quem não conhece o Salvador, a preocupação e a ansiedade farão parte da vida. Mas para aqueles que lhe entregaram suas vidas, Jesus prometeu: “Venham a mim, todos os que estão cansados e sobrecarregados, e eu lhes darei descanso. Tomem sobre vocês o meu jugo e aprendam de mim, pois sou manso e humilde de coração, e vocês encontrarão descanso para as suas almas.”[13]De gotquestions.org[14]
*
[Jesus] diz para todos que creem nele, “Portanto eu lhes digo: não se preocupem com suas próprias vidas.”[15] Jesus—e todas as promessas que são agora verdadeiras através[16]—é o antídoto para a ansiedade. O que ele realiza por nós e promete para nós é o triunfo final sobre tudo que nos aterroriza. Ele não nos promete escapar da tristeza neste mundo. Promete redimir toda tristeza[17], e que nele venceremos o pior que o mundo pode fazer conosco.[18]
Em Cristo, tudo estará finalmente, gloriosamente, eternamente, inexprimivelmente, maravilhosamente bem. Portanto, Jesus diz para você e para mim, agora, exatamente onde estamos: “Não fique ansioso”. Ele diz isso conhecendo nosso passado, nosso temperamento, a seriedade de nossas crises atuais e a intensidade com que tememos que o possível medo possa se tornar realidade. ...
Obviamente, o comando para não ficarmos ansiosos é humanamente impossível. Mas, como em quase todos os outros comandos para o cristão, “Para os homens é impossível, mas não para Deus, porque para Deus todas as coisas são possíveis.”[19]
A única maneira de cumprirmos este mandamento é “pela oração e súplicas com ação de graças,” fazendo com que nossas petições sejam conhecidas por Deus, confiando em uma promessa específica. E então a paz do Senhor, que excede todo o entendimento, guardará os nossos corações e nossos pensamentos em Cristo.[20] Podemos lançar as nossas ansiedades sobre Deus,[21] e pararmos de ficar ansiosos com a força que ele nos dá.[22]Jon Bloom[23]
*
Por que suportar outra noite sem dormir? Por que sofrer de ansiedade quando você pode Me dar as suas preocupações e posso lhe dar paz de espírito? Mesmo nas circunstâncias mais sombrias, posso lhe proporcionar uma paz incrível que aliviará o estresse físico e mental causado pela preocupação e pelo medo.
Minha paz chega ao seu coração quando você desvia os olhos dos seus problemas e os direciona para Mim. Pare de se preocupar e pense em Mim. Encontre algo pelo qual Me agradecer—algo especial que fiz por você no passado—e Me louve por isso. Ou pense na pior coisa que já lhe aconteceu e no fato de você ainda estar aqui, e transforme esse pensamento em uma oração de agradecimento. Mesmo que você não tenha orado na época, mesmo que ainda não Me conhecesse, fui Eu quem o ajudou a sair de tal situação. Tenho velado por você toda a sua vida e ou o ajudei a superar ou o poupei de mais problemas do que pode imaginar—da mesma forma que vou ajudá-lo nos seus problemas atuais.
Quanto mais Me louvar, mais a Minha paz encherá o seu coração.—Jesus, falando em profecia
*
Há muito pelo que agradecer cada dia. Também há muito para mantê-lo ansioso e preocupado. No entanto, Deus chama você para viver em ação de graças e em paz. A preocupação só dá lugar ao medo, e o medo substitui a fé, causando o aumento da ansiedade. Deus nos diz para deixarmos a fé suplantar o medo que tenta entrar e roubar a nossa paz. Deixe a verdade da Palavra de Deus mudar seu coração e mente ansiosos, e que a preocupação o leve apenas a orar.
Querido Deus, encha meu coração e mente com tudo pelo que tenho a agradecer. Obrigado por assumir a responsabilidade de guardar meu coração e minha mente com Sua maravilhosa paz à medida que assumo a responsabilidade de guardar o meu coração e entregar os meus medos a Você. Que troca maravilhosa! Eu hoje entrego meus pensamentos ansiosos e preocupações a Você e peço que cuide de cada detalhe da minha vida. Peço em nome de Jesus, amém.—Gail Rodgers[24]
Publicado no Âncora em março de 2020.
https://anchor.tfionline.com/pt/post/adios-angustia-e-ansiedade/
[1] 1 Pedro 5:7.
[2] NVI.
[3] NVI.
[4] Tito 3:9; 2 Timóteo 2:14.
[5] Gálatas 5:22.
[6] Salmo 103:1–5.
[7] Mateus 5:3–12.
[8] Romanos 8:37.
[9] João 16:33.
[12] NVI.
[13] Mateus 11:28–30, NVI.
[15] Lucas 12:22.
[16] 2 Coríntios 1:20.
[17] Romanos 8:28.
[18] João 16:33; Romanos 8:35–39.
[19] Marcos 10:27.
[20] Filipenses 4:6–7.
[21] 1 Pedro 5:7.
[22] 1 Pedro 4:11.
[24] https://thoughts-about-god.com/blog/gail-rodgers_trade-anxiety.

Adios to Angst and Anxiety!

A compilation

Audio length: 10:40

Download Audio (9.7MB)
Angst is a deep feeling of anxiety, dread, insecurity, or apprehension. Angst comes from an Indo-European root word that means “anguish, anxiety, or anger.” Angst differs slightly from true anxiety in that, while anxiety is active, angst is passive. Anxiety is fear about a certain event, but angst is a sense of underlying dissatisfaction without specific cause.
Some seasons of life produce apprehension that, if not dealt with properly, can create angst. Geographical moves, an upcoming job change, or the teenage years are often seasons in which we can develop angst. The decisions of national leaders can stir unrest in the citizenry during war times or economic crises. Rather than allow those events to create angst, the Bible invites us to cast all our care upon the Lord, because He cares for us.1 We are not scolded for our fear but urged to choose a better option than angst. Philippians 4:6–7 says, “Do not be anxious about anything, but in every situation, by prayer and petition, with thanksgiving, present your requests to God. And the peace of God, which transcends all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.”
The book of Psalms gives us many examples of situations that could produce angst, but the psalmists continued writing until they found a solution. Psalm 42, for example, expresses the fear, apprehension, and anxiety we often feel, but it intersperses those heartfelt cries with hope, such as in verse 5: “Why, my soul, are you downcast? Why so disturbed within me? Put your hope in God, for I will yet praise him, my Savior and my God.”
For citizens of heaven, life in this broken world can be overwhelming. We don’t fit in here. We don’t like or agree with much of what the world celebrates, and that feeling that we are “not home yet” can create angst. When we allow ourselves to be emotionally embroiled in ongoing conflict and fruitless debate, we can develop angst without realizing what it is.2
Christians who struggle with feelings of angst should ask God to develop the fruit of the Spirit, joy, in their lives3; find their satisfaction in Christ4; and choose the path of blessedness.5 We are “more than conquerors through Him who loved us.”6 Jesus promised to give us His peace, saying, “In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world.”7,8
We can count on the Lord to provide for our needs, protect us from evil, guide us, and keep our souls secure for eternity. We may not be able to prevent anxious thoughts from entering our minds, but we can practice the right response.9
In 1 Peter 5:7, we are instructed to “cast all your anxiety on him because he cares for you.” God does not want us to carry around the weight of problems and burdens. In this verse, God is telling us to give Him all of our worries and concerns. Why does God want to take on our problems? The Bible says it is because He cares for us. God is concerned about everything that happens to us. No worry is too big or too small for His attention.
Of course, for those who do not know the Savior, worry and anxiety will be part of life. But to those who have given their lives to Him, Jesus promised, “Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you and learn from me, for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy and my burden is light.”10From gotquestions.org11
*
[Jesus] says to everyone who believes in him, “Therefore I tell you, do not be anxious about your life.”12 Jesus—and all the promises that are now Yes in him13—is the antidote to anxiety. What he accomplishes for us and promises to us is the ultimate triumph over all that terrifies us. He does not promise us escape from misery in this world. He promises that he will redeem every misery,14 and that in him we will overcome the worst the world can do to us.15
In Christ, everything is going to be ultimately, gloriously, eternally, inexpressibly, wonderfully okay. Therefore, Jesus says to you and me, right now, right where we’re at, “Do not be anxious.” He says this knowing our past, our temperament, the seriousness of our current crises, and how intense we fear the possible dread may become reality…
Of course, the command to not be anxious is humanly impossible. But as with nearly every other command for the Christian, “With man it is impossible, but not with God. For all things are possible with God.”16
The only way we can fulfill this command is “by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving,” making our requests known to God, trusting a specific promise. Then his peace, surpassing all our understanding, will guard our hearts and minds in Christ.17 We cast our anxieties on God,18 and cease to be anxious in the strength he supplies.19Jon Bloom20
*
Why endure another sleepless night? Why suffer from anxiety when you can give your cares to Me and I can give you peace of mind? Even in the bleakest circumstances, I can give you amazing peace that will relieve the mental and physical stress caused by worry and fear.
My peace comes to your heart when you turn your eyes from your troubles and toward Me. Stop worrying and think about Me. Find one thing to thank Me for—one special thing that I have done for you in the past—and praise Me for that. Or think of the worst thing that’s ever happened to you and the fact that you’re still here, and turn that thought into a prayer of thanksgiving. Even if you didn’t pray at the time, even if you didn’t yet know Me at the time, it was I who brought you through that situation. I’ve been watching over you your whole life, and I have either helped you through or spared you from more troubles than you can imagine—just like I’m going to help you through your present problems.
The more you praise Me, the more My peace will fill your heart.—Jesus, speaking in prophecy
*
Every day there is much to be thankful for. There is also much to keep one feeling anxious and worried. Yet God calls you to live in thanksgiving and in peace. Worry only gives way to fear, and fear will displace your faith, causing anxiety to grow. God tells us to let faith take the upper hand and cover over the fear that tries to slip in and rob you of peace. Let the truth of His Word change your anxious heart and mind and let worry be your call to prayer.
Dear God, fill my heart and mind with the recollection of all that I have to say “thank you” for. Thank You that as I take responsibility for guarding my heart and bringing my fears to You, YOU also guard my heart and mind with Your amazing peace. What a wonderful exchange! Today I turn my worried anxious thoughts over to You and ask You to preside over the details of my life. I pray this in Jesus’ name, Amen.—Gail Rodgers21
Published on Anchor March 2020. Read by Jon Marc. Music by John Listen.https://anchor.tfionline.com/post/adios-angst-and-anxiety/

1 1 Peter 5:7.
2 Titus 3:9; 2 Timothy 2:14.
3 Galatians 5:22.
4 Psalm 103:1–5.
5 Matthew 5:3–12.
6 Romans 8:37.
7 John 16:33.
10 Matthew 11:28–30.
12 Luke 12:22.
13 2 Corinthians 1:20.
14 Romans 8:28.
15 John 16:33; Romans 8:35–39.
16 Mark 10:27.
17 Philippians 4:6–7.
18 1 Peter 5:7.
19 1 Peter 4:11.
21 https://thoughts-about-god.com/blog/gail-rodgers_trade-anxiety/.

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Faith in the Face of Fear!


Dennis Edwards

Yesterday I had a very interesting day. Our dog was dying and in great pain so my wife asked me to take him early to the vetenarian to put her down. Off I went, but in my hurry I forgot to take with me my devotional book and my Bible, which I usually read in the morning for a good 30 minutes or more.

When I arrived at the vetenarian, I thought I would listen to a part of the Bible on my phone app while I waited, as two other owners of animals were in front of me. But while searching for the Bible app on my phone, I happened upon my whatsapp page and clicked on it. I saw two new messages. 

Normally, I try not to read messages from people until I have had my time of prayer and devotion with the Lord. I want to love the Lord first and keep Him first in my life and not allow my ministry to others to conflict with my relationship with Him. "Love the Lord thy God first, and then thy neighbour as thyself."

However, seeing I had a message from a Pastor friend, who usually sends good devotional material, I decided to open his message. But, I was in for a surprise with what I was about to hear and see. Today, it wasn’t a devotional reading at all. It was a half hour vídeo of a German Christian explaining the history of Corona Virus and how the whole response mode which the world was following had been written up over eight years ago in a study by some world organization. The title of the message was something like “Corona Virus Planned by World Masters.”

After listening to the first message, I then opened up the second message which was from a woman firend who had been a missionary in Africa some years ago. She normally doesn't send me anything "heavy" or controversail. Today, she sent me a half hour áudio from a pastor in South Africa. 

I had already been disobedient to my normal plan of reading, because I had opened a message before I had had my personal time with the Lord. Now, I continued in my disobedience. Again, it turned out not to be a devotional reading, but another heavy message about the origin and cause of the Corona Virus outbreak. 

The South African Pastor was saying that the quarenteen would lead to an economic crash and an obligatory vaccine which would include a biometric micro-chip. He concluded that the vaccine/implant could very well be the "mark of the beast" spoken of in the book of Revelation.[1] God has told us that true believers are not to accept such a mark even if it is obligatory. God has said that the mark would really have a spiritual signifance. The Pastor was explaining that those that accepted the vaccine may very well be receiving the “mark of the beast” and in fact be adoring Satan.

Usually, I’m not affected by these things as I am a student of the Bible endtime events and have studied quite a bit about the various interpretations of Bible prophecy. However, today it was different and I was caught off guard. What I seemed to be able to handle on a normal day, when I had had my time in God's word, my devotional time with the Lord first, affected me today differently. 

Suddenly, I felt like Peter when he looked at the waves.[2]  I got my eyes off the Lord and all I could see was that the dark days of Bible prophecy were nearly upon us. I lost that perfect peace we have when are minds are stayed on Him and Him alone.[3]  I got my eyes off of Jesus and saw only the horrific events of the book of Revelation that seemed like a giant monster ready to devour me.

I ended up feeling attacked spiritually, and very anxious. Thankfully, I realized what was happening and called up a close friend of mine from a prayer group I am a member of to ask for prayer. He, too, was needing prayer and we prayed together and immediately we both felt better for it. 

But the whole incident made me realize what kind of the affect our words can have on others. I have a whatsapp group of fifty people whom I share material with every day. The event of the day made me reflect on what type of material I was sharing with my group. In my bid to teach them Bible prophecy was I over emphasizing the horrors of the “Great Tribulation” and not emphasizing sufficiently “the victorious coming of the Lord?”

If we dwell on the fact that the rise of the Antichrist is coming with the mark of the beast, and pose the question “what are we going to do,” then we lose sight of the fact that the Lord promises to keep us through all these things. The night before I had been talking to a friend of mine from Australia who was asking me about Bible prophecy. I answered all his questions and he commented that he agreed with everything I had shared with him. I ended up saying, “Manuel, during the tribulation the Lord will be trying to protect us from the evil if we stay close to Him.”

My friend responed, “Dennis, I agree with everything you said, except the word “trying.” He said, “Dennis, the Lord is going to protect us from the evil.” I thought, “Wow, he puts the emphasis on the Lord and what the Lord is going to do. But I’m putting the emphasis on trying, my trying to keep close to the Lord. It sounds like my self-effort is what’s going to save me.” But my friend said, “Dennis, I believe everything you said except the word “trying,” because it is the Lord that is going to protect us.”

I thought, “Wow, he’s putting emphasis on the Lord’s sovereign power to save and protect us. He’s showing faith and trust in God’s power, while I don’t seem to have the same level of confidence in God’s word. I don’t seem to believe that God is going protect those He seals, like He says He will in His word.[4]  I seem to be thinking it’s going to be my own effort that will save me.”

God promises that He will be with us to the end of the world.[5]  He says we will be more than conquerors through Him that loves us.[6]  Even if something bad happen to us, He is going to give us the grace to bear it or a way to escape it.[7]  Therefore, we don’t have anything to worry or to fear about. We, as Christians, don’t want to transmit worry or fear to our friends and aquaintences. We are in God’s hands and nothing will happen to us, but what God allows to happen. He won’t let anything happen to us that He doesn’t give us the grace to confront and pass through.

Please, make sure you are spending enough time in personal devotion with the Lord in praise and prayer. Spend sufficient time with Jesus by reading your Bible or a good devotional book.  Anchor, found at the link: anchor.tfionline.com, has a reservoir of articles on many different subjects which you might find beneficial to study during today’s uncertain days.  We need to continually strengthen our relationship with the Lord, especially in difficult times like these. We need to be reading our Bibles or other devotional material daily.

I apologized to my “Daily Might” group for having shared with them some articles that may have promoted fear. We need to make sure our words are promoting faith and not fear. God is ultimately in control. He’s going to care of us and He’s going to give us the faith for whatever we have to go through. 

Corrie ten Boom who spent time in the Nazi concentration camps during WWII confessed to her father one day. She said, “Dad, I don’t have faith for getting caught by the Nazis.  Dad, I’m afraid I’m going to deny my faith. I can’t face persecution. I can’t face what’s coming.”

Her family had been helping Jews escape from Holland. They had a secret hiding place in Corrie’s bedroom for six people. They also helped the members of the Dutch Resistance. Corrie later wrote about it in her best selling book The Hiding Place. 

But with Corrie’s confession of fear her father wisely replied. He said, “Corrie, when you take the train from Haarlam where we live to go to Amsterdam, when do I give you the money for the ticket? A year ahead of time, a month, a week, a day?” 

Corrie responded, “No, Dad, you give it to me when you drop me off at the train station, at the moment I need it.”

Her father continued, “That’s right, Corrie, and that’s the same with God. You might not have the faith right now for suffering persecution, but don’t worry. If the time comes for you to suffer in that way, God will give you the faith to face it.” Whatever we have to face in the future, God is going to give us the faith to confront it. He even says we are going to do mighty exploits in the face of persecution.[8] 

Jesus has told us He will be with us to the end of the world.[9]  He has told us that, yes, in the world we shall have tribulation, but He has also encouraged us to be of good cheer, because He has overcome the world.[10]  Like Martin Luther wrote, “We shall not fear for God has willed His truth to triump through us.” 

Another friend of mine told me recently, “Dennis, you sound like you are worried because the days of the Antichrist seem imminent. But don’t forget Jesus is coming back. That’s where you need to keep your eyes. You need to keep your eyes on Jesus, not on the bad stuff.” Jesus even said, “When you begin to see these things come to pass, Look up, for your redemption draws nigh.”[11] I guess He knew we would start looking at the waves and forget about Him!

Remember, darkness shall cover the earth, and gross darkness the people.  But God has promised that His light shall shine upon us and we shall be His witnesses unto the ends of the earth.[12]  Whatever happens to us will be within His will and He will give us the grace to bear it, or save us out of it.  We will be overcomers like our forefathers in Hebrews 11 who were strangers and pilgrims upon the earth. They looked for another city, a heavenly one whose builder and maker is God,[13] where God Himself shall wipe away all tears from our eyes, and there shall be no more death, nor pain, nor sorrow, nor sickness and the former things shall be passed away.[14]

Let us have a balance in what we share with others and not concentrate on the bad stuff so much that we discourage others and they run from us in fear. Bright days are ahead because Jesus is ultimately in control. He’s not trying to keep us, but He will keep us to the very end. If it is His will for us to suffer, He will be with us in our trial and give us the grace to bear it. Then we can say with Apostle Paul, “Oh, death, where is thy sting. Oh, grave, where is thy victory?... But thanks be to God who has given us the victory through Jesus Christ our Lord.”[15]


[1] Revelation 13:16.17
[2] Matthew 14:28-32
[3] Isaiah 26:3
[4] Revelation 7:3
[5] Matthew 28:20
[6] Romans 8:37
[7] 1 Corinthians 13:10
[8] Daniel 11:32
[9] Matthew 28:20
[10] John 16:33
[11] Luke 21:28
[12] Isaiah 60:2, Acts 1:8
[13] Hebrews 11:13, 10, 16.
[14] Revelation 21:4
[15] 1 Corinthians 15:55, 56, 58

There’s a major sovereign debt crisis looming!

April 2, 2020 - Bahia Beach, Puerto Rico - Simon Black

By the mid 1300s, the Republic of Florence in modern day Italy had experienced one of the greatest economic booms in human history.

In less than a century, Florence had grown from a tiny, irrelevant backwater to become one of Europe’s largest cities and preeminent financial center.

The expansion was truly impressive. Florence’s population had grown 10x. It had become a leading manufacturer in both weapons and textiles.

(Many etymologists believe the word ‘pistol’ is derived from the name of a town near Florence called Pistoia, which was renowned for its quality arms.)

And the city’s innovations in the banking industry were revolutionizing business across Europe.

Florence’s phenomenal economic success is quite similar to what the United States experienced in its early history.

Naturally, though, they managed to screw it up.

At the turn of the century in the year 1300, the Republic of Florence’s public debt was quite manageable at just 50,000 gold florins. That’s less than $100 per capita in today’s money.

By 1338, after a series of costly wars and expensive public works projects, Florence’s debt had ballooned to 450,000 gold florins. Four years later (after yet another war) it had grown to 600,000 gold florins.

This was crippling to public finances given that the government of Florence was paying between 10% and 15% interest on its debt.

To make matters worse, some of Florence’s most prominent banks had made bad loans to foreign governments-- most notably to King Edward III of England, who had suffered terrible defeat against France in what would become known as the Hundred Years War.

Edward would ultimately default on his Italian bank loans, sparking a terrible banking crisis in Florence.

News traveled quickly that the most powerful financial center in Europe was in trouble. The government was near ruin, and the banks were collapsing.

And then came the plague.

In 1348, the Black Death ravaged Florence, wiping out at least 25% of its population. The famed Italian author Giovanni Boccaccio was living in the city at the time, and he wrote about his first-hand experiences in the Decameron:

“[S]uch terror was struck into the hearts of men and women by this calamity, that brother abandoned brother, and the uncle his nephew, and the sister her brother, and very often the wife her husband. What is even worse and nearly incredible is that fathers and mothers refused to see and tend their children, as if they had not been theirs.”

Business and commerce ground to a halt. Tax revenue dried up. Florence’s government was unable to pay its debts. People were wiped out.

As local politician Giovanni Villani described the situation, “Our republic has lost all its power and our citizens have nearly all been impoverished.”

Amazingly enough, Florence’s misfortune didn’t stop there.

In the late 1340s, torrential rains destroyed local agricultural production, resulting in widespread famine.

City managers tried desperately to import food, but because Florence’s credit was so poor, few traders were willing to do business with them.


It was a historic and unprecedented fall from power; Florence had gone from being one of the wealthiest cities in Europe to literally begging for food in less than a decade.

I can’t help but wonder which countries are going to be begging as a result of our modern crisis.

Just like Florence in the 1300s, there are dozens of countries who were already in severe financial hardship going into this pandemic.

Now their tax revenues are dwindling, and they’re forced to spend absurd amounts of money to stimulate their economies.

A few years back our holding company acquired a private business in Australia that, thankfully, is holding up extremely well.

The CEO of that company called me a few days ago to tell me about some of Australia’s stimulus efforts; in addition to waiving payroll taxes, extending tax deadlines, and making direct loans to businesses, the Australian government is now directly subsidizing certain employee wages, up to $3,000 per month.

We’re seeing similar stimulus packages all over the world.

In the United States, of course, the government recently passed a $2 trillion stimulus plan… though I expect they’ll quickly realize that $2 trillion buys them about 4-6 weeks.

So if this pandemic drags on, they’re going to have to spend another $2 trillion, and another $2 trillion after that.

Remember that US government debt increased by $10 trillion in the first few years following the last financial crisis. It certainly seems reasonable to expect a repeat performance.

Some places will be able to afford such prodigious spending.

Norway, for example, has ZERO net debt. Norway’s government has such a massive financial surplus that they could tell every citizen, “Stay home and do nothing for the next six months,” and just write a check for everything. They wouldn’t need to go into debt by a single penny.

Italy, on the other hand, is a basket case.

The Italian government has no savings, and its debt burden even before this crisis was more than 120% of GDP.

Moreover, Italian banks were also teetering on the edge of disaster before the pandemic hit. I suspect most of them are completely insolvent now.

Making any forecast right now is remarkably difficult. Every scenario is on the table, and absolutely anything can happen.

But it seems pretty clear that the most heavily indebted countries are in big trouble… and we may be looking at a major sovereign debt crisis over the next few months.

To your freedom,

Simon Black,
Founder, SovereignMan.com

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

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